Mugaritz’s makes it 6 straight with G3 Berkeley win, Eclair flies home to take Debutante, Horses to Watch, and Updates

Dirt, turf, tapeta, it doesn’t matter! Mugaritz scores his 6 straight win by taking the G3 Berkeley Handicap on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields. Also, it was his 3rd straight stakes win, all on different surfaces. The 4yo Dialed In gelding was facing his toughest field to date in the Berkeley and still managed to win by a 3 1/2 length margin. The race played out pretty similarly to how I thought it would in my preview– My Friend Emma would send from the rail, and What a View would try to clear from the outside post to sit in 2nd. This left Mugaritz in a perfect spot in 3rd behind the leaders. He did get into a bit of a vise with nowhere to go heading into the far turn, but once the leader started to back up, jockey Ricky Gonzalez was able to swing him outside My Friend Emma into a perfect spot for the stretch drive. If you look at the replay, every horse is under pressure at the top of the stretch, while Gonzlaez is still sitting chilly on Mugaritz– he was loaded! Mugaritz took off in the 2 path and went on to win handily. G1 winner Ohio ran well despite having a wide trip throughout. He made a big move turning for home and just flattened out a bit late– a mile definitely seems like his preferred trip. Brave Nation at 24/1 ran huge for trainer Blaine Wright to close late for 3rd. Grecian Fire closed up the inside for 4th. The final time of 1:42.40 was just .25 off of the track record. Mugaritz earned a 93 Beyer for his victory.

Trainer Jonathan Wong deserves a lot of credit with Mugaritz. When Mugaritz got into the Wong barn he made his GG debut in a 20k MCL race (First time blinkers). Wong was able to move him up from there to eventually run on the KY Derby Trail– 4th place finish in the El Camino Real Derby and a 5th place finish in the Jeff Ruby Stakes. Mugaritz showed talent and definitely overachieved considering he broke his maiden for 20. But once he came back from his layoff after the Derby Trail, he showed a whole new dimension. He was finally able to relax off other horses and prove he could rate easily. In my opinion, Mugaritz’s running style is what makes him so dangerous, because you can place him anywhere you want as a rider and he will be fine. In the Bull Dog Handicap he wired the field, in the Joseph T. Grace he pressed the leader on the outside, and in the Berkeley he sat behind the leaders on the inside. Mugaritz’s versatility gives him an advantage in any race he runs in. He now has 8 wins in 13 starts and has banked $227,125 in career earnings. It will be interesting to see where he goes next after Saturday’s win. The next stakes race up here for him isn’t until the G3 San Francisco Mile.

Eclair in the paddock before her Debutante win

It was nice to have a stakes race on Friday and I was lucky enough to be on site to watch the Golden Gate Debutante. Unfortunately there were 3 scratches in this race that included ML favorite Misirlou, Stradari, and Say Yes Sally. SoCal invader Eclair was able to take back and make a perfectly timed run under Juan Hernandez to win the Debutante for Bob Baffert. This was he 6th start of the year and she had been knocking heads with runners like Leucothea and Laizy Daisy down south, so this was a bit of class drop for her. She got the blinkers back on for this race and was running on an All-weather surface for the first time in her career. No Cover Charge took the lead in the stretch and looked like she was going to be really tough to real in. Eclair had just one filly beat at the top of the lane and flashed a strong turn of foot to win under a hand ride late. The daughter of Bernardini stopped the clock in 1:110.30 and earned a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. She has now pushed her career earnings to $75,191. No Cover Charge ran well in 2nd and showed that she is definitely at her best going 1-turn. My pick Shanghai Keely had a rough trip and wound up back in 3rd. She was hard to settle going up the backstretch, and had some traffic trouble in the stetch. The favorite Mischievous Curlin could only manage 4th in here. She took back off the speed and ran on evenly in the stretch.

Horses to watch

Here are 2 horses from last week to add to the ‘Horses to Watch’ list

‘Horses to Watch’ highlights horses that should be followed for potential wagering options in the future. Virtual stables or stable mail are good tools to help you follow along.

Trouble N Paradise (Nov 28: Race 4) Made her career debut here in a 12.5k maiden claimer. Broke slow and was very green early on. Found some trouble heading into the far turn and had nowhere to go. Slip horses on the inside in the stretch and closed well. Ran on well in a spot where a lot of firsters would have shied away from dropping inside. Just missed by 1 length and galloped out well. Sherman runners improve well from start 1 to start 2.

Real Trouble (Nov 28: Race 6) Set very quick fractions here stretching out after sprint win. 23.32 for the 1/4 and 47.05 for the 1/2. Dueled on the lead up the backstretch and was able to put all the other speed away on the far turn. Opened up a big lead turning for home after shaking off the speed and got run down by Angelo’s Pride from off the pace in the final yards.

Updates:

2019 G3 Berkeley Handicap Preview

Mugaritz before his win in the Joseph T. Grace Stakes

The Fall Meet headliner came up very strong this year! 11 horses are set to lineup in Saturday’s G3 Berkeley Handicap. A nice blend of Northern California’s top horses along with some Southern California shippers makes for a very compelling race. This 100k G3 is going to be run at 1 1/16m on the main track.

Past 5 Berkeley Handicap winners:

2018- Editore

2017- Editore

2016- Stryker Phd

2015- Poshky

2014- Pepper Crown

1- My Friend Emma (Amador/ Ramos): Stretching out to a route after a 6th place finish in the Oakland Stakes. Looks like a sprinter but does have a win at 1m over this track last April. Also was 2nd in last year’s G3 All American. Seems off form now but maybe routing will wake him up. Going to send hard from the inside.

2- Grecian Fire (Antongeorgi/ Desormeaux): Disappointed last time out when finishing 4th as the favorite in the Joseph T. Grace Stakes. Finished ahead of Ohio, Majestic Eagle, and What A View in the G2 Del Mar Mile in August. Took down the G3 All American on today’s track back in May. 3/6 lifetime over the tapeta. Worked a sharp 48.1 for 4f on Nov 16th. The more pace in front of him, the better.

#3 Grecian Fire 5/27/2019

3- Mugaritz (Gonzalez/ Wong): Win-machine is looking for his 6th straight victory. Was put on the shelf in March and has come back to win the Bull Dog Handicap at 9f on dirt and the 8.5f Joseph T. Grace Stakes on turf. Showed a lot of heart and determination in the lane in the last start. Super versatile running style, so the 3 post shouldn’t be a problem– he can be placed anywhere. 4 for 6 over the main track at Golden Gate Fields. Goes out for leading trainer Jonathan Wong. Numbers fit well and is coming off 2 sharp works.

#4 Camino Del Paraiso, #7 Grecian Fire, #9 Mugaritz 11/2/2019

4- Souter (Alvarado/ Glatt): Just missed by 3/4 of a length at Keeneland last time out in a Turf Allowance (4 horses out of that race have run back, and the only on the board finisher was the 5th place runner in a G3 at CD). Will be sitting towards the back and trying to run on late. Has never run on an All-weather surface before. Figures are a tad on the slow side, but could be dangerous if the pace gets hot.

5- Ashleyluvssugar (Blanc/ Eurton): Hard-knocking 8yo has surpassed $1.4 million in career earnings. Was last seen running 6th in the California Dreamin’ Stakes at Del Mar in July, a race that was won by Grecian Fire. His best races have come going 9+ furlongs on the grass– this distance of 8.5f could be a bit on the sharp side for him. 5:3-0-2 record over an All-weather surface. Should be ready for this one based on his Nov 18th workout (click here).

#2 What a View, #3 Grecian Fire, #4 Ashleyluvssugar 7/26/2019

6- Lymebyrd (Monroy/ Tekos Jr.): Coming into this one as one of the outsiders, but his form on the main track at Golden Gate Fields has been tremendous– he has 4 wins, and has hit the board in 6 of his 7 starts over it. Limehouse colt won his last start back in September in an Allowance that was run at the same distance and surface as the Berkeley. There was only 1 out of 5 runners to come back from that race to hit the board, and that was Sixes’ 3rd in the Joseph T. Grace Stakes. A steady string of workouts heading into this one.

#2 Lymebyrd 9/28/2019

7- Majestic Eagle (Gomez/ Drysdale): Was last seen running 5th by just 2 lengths in the Tourist Mile at Kentucky Downs back on Aug 31st. He ran behind Snapper Sinclair, who would eventually run 4th in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. Majestic Eagle finished 6th by 3 1/4 lengths in the G2 Del Mar Mile 2 starts back. Drysdale is 13% with runners off a 90+ day layoff. Has never run on an All-weather surface. Will be trying to run on late.

8- Camino Del Paraiso (Hernandez/ Jauregui): Coming off a narrow neck defeat to Mugaritz in the Joseph T. Grace Stakes. Also ran 2nd in this race last year by a neck. Coming off 2 consecutive 59 and change bullet works. Gets leading rider Juan Hernandez, who is coming off a win in Friday’s Golden Gate Debutante. Camino Del Paraiso always seems to make a big move but just can’t cross the wire first– has 4 wins, 10 seconds, and 2 thirds in 31 starts. Pretty handy horse and will likely settle in mid-pack. Can he get over the hump here?

9- Ohio (Couton/ McCarthy): The Brazilian-bred Ohio ships up north for trainer Mike McCarthy. Ran 9th by just 3 1/2 lengths in the G2 City of Hope Mile last time out on Oct 5. Was 3rd and 4th respectively in his 2 starts prior to that in the Presque Isle Downs Mile and the G2 Del Mar Mile. Seems like his preferred distance is a mile, as he did win a G1 at that distance back in May. He ran at today’s distance over an All-weather surface at Presque Isle and ran well– just flattened out a bit late. Class of the field.

#1 Ohio 10/5/2019

10- Brave Nation (Martinez/ Wright): Took an Optional Claiming race at a mile on the main track here back in May. Shipped up to Canada after that for trainer John Snow and would go on to win the 1 3/8m G3 Premier Handicap at Hastings. Was last seen running 4th in the G2 Marathon on the Breeders Cup undercard. Back in the Wright barn now. Wide post, but seems pretty versatile. Might want to run farther than the 8.5 furlongs.

#4 Brave Nation 5/24/2019

11- What a View (Pena/ Monroe): Former G1 winner is making his 1st start for trainer Sherrie Monroe. 8yo gelding ran 4th in the California Flag Handicap going 5 1/2f on the turf on Oct 19. Was on the lead in the G2 Del Mar Mile 2 starts back but faded to 7th. Has a lot of speed, and is going to have to use it from the far-outside post. 0 for 1 in his 1 start over an All-weather surface. Should be ready 2nd off the layoff here, but is going to have to find his previous form.

#1 What a View, #6 My Friend Emma

Pace scenario: I see My Friend Emma sending from the rail to get the lead. What a View is going to have to use some speed from the far outside post to be able to save some ground on the first turn– should be in a close spot on the outside in 2nd. Mugaritz has some speed and I think he will sit just off the leaders in a nice spot. Brave Nation, Ohio, Camino Del Paraiso, and Lymebyrd should all be sitting in a stalking position. Ashleyluvssugar and Majestic Eagle will likely be close to the stalkers. Grecian Fire and Souter will be at the back.

Selections: 3-8-9-2

#3 Mugaritz (4/1)– Think he sits a great trip here behind the speed and will be able to get the jump on the closers. On a roll right now.

#8 Camino Del Paraiso (8/1)– Always in the mix. 2nd in this race last year. Coming off sharp works and gets the leading rider.

#9 Ohio (3/1)– Class of the field. Think he’s best going 1 mile. Deserving favorite.

#2 Grecian Fire (9/2)– Won G3 All American over this track back in May. Sharp work on Nov 16th. Holds form over a few of the other runners in here.

2019 Golden Gate Debutante Preview

Misirlou in the Santa Rosa paddock prior to her career debut

A talented group of 9 2yo fillies are set to square off in Friday’s 50k Golden Gate Debutante. This is one of the deepest stakes races I’ve seen this year in Northern California, and I am looking forward to going over each runner in this field.

Here is a a list of the past 5 Debutante winners:

2018- Tomlin

2017- Steph Being Steph

2016- Isa Firecracker

2015- Code Warrior

2014- Seduire

1- Stradari (Couton/ Jauregui): Had some buzz before her debut and won very impressively on September 21st to break her maiden (6th place runner came back to win next time out going 1m on the grass). She sent straight to the lead that day and took the field all the way. Impressive how she held everyone off and still managed to widen her margin in the stretch. Came back last time and found the waters too deep against Been Studying Her in the 7f Golden State Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita on the Breeders Cup undercard. Was in contention early but backed out of it heading into the turn– tough to hold effort against her considering how weird that track has been playing. Hand is probably forced to show speed from the rail.

#3 Stradari

2- Shanghai Keely (Duran/ Herbertson): Talented filly won very impressively on debut by 6 3/4 lengths at Pleasanton going 5f. After that she stepped up to G2 company in the Sorrento at Del Mar and ran a distant 4th behind the very talented Amalfi Sunrise. Took a few months off and came back with a 5th place effort the Pike Place Dancer Stakes (1m on turf). Had quite the trip that day as she encountered plenty of trouble. Broke a step slow from the rail and got stuck inside horses early on. Was pulling early and looked very uncomfortable– she didn’t settle until they got onto the backstretch. Made a steady move into contention and was loaded in the lane. Unfortunately nothing opened up for her on the inside, and the pace-setter backing up caused her to lose all her momentum by having to check. Like the gate work on Nov 16th, should sharpen her up for today. See her settling off the pace.

#1 Shanghai Keely, #2 No Cover Charge

3- Say Yes Sally (Herrera/ Miranda): Vronsky filly is a perfect 1 for 1 lifetime. Won a statebred MSW stylishly on Nov 9th. She rated the leader that day, took command on the turn, and powered home in the stretch to win by 1 3/4 lengths. This is her dam’s (Cyclone Sally) 1st foal. Her dam is also a 1/2 sister to MGSW Sircat Sally, 23x winner Sir Vronski, and MSP Accomplishedsister. Facing much saltier company this time, going to need to take a big step up. Has speed to be in the mix early if needed.

#3 Say Yes Sally

4- Eclair (Baffert/ Hernandez): Well-bred runner from the Bob Baffert barn ships up North looking to claim some black-type. Broke her maiden in start #3 at Los Alamitos as the 1/2 favorite. Came out of that race to run a distant 3rd behind the talented Leucothea in the Anoakia Stakes. Last out she tried routing on the turf in an Allowance at Del Mar and did not show much at all. Facing easier today than what she has been running against, and a synthetic surface should be no problem. Puts blinkers back on here– hasn’t worn them since her debut where she showed speed and faded. Leading rider Juan Hernandez is coming off of a red-hot weekend. Connections likely to take a lot of money.

#6 Eclair

5- Smokin Hot Bobbie (Martinez/ Gonzalez): The first of 2 Coach Bob runners for the Reina Gonzalez barn. Making her 7th start of the year and has been facing some of the top 2yos in Northern California. Has runs against Bulletproof One, Darnquick, and Misirlou. Ran on well to be 2nd behind likely favorite Misirlou in the last start. She is going to running on late and if the pace collapses up front, she could definitely catch a piece of it at a huge price. Coming off of a 4f bullet work in 48 flat on Nov 22.

6- Habobanero (Amador/ Gonzalez): Stablemate to Smokin Hot Bobbie is also coming out of the Misirlou race on Nov 8th, where she ran 4th. Showed some promise early on by running 2nd by a neck to Big Maria on debut and then broke her maiden in her 3rd career start. Has a lot of speed and I would expect her to show it here considering there is other speed to her outside. Needs to improve in this spot.

7- Mischievous Curlin (Gonzalez/ Taylor): Longshot debut winner took the field gate-to-wire in her maiden breaking win. Big step up to stakes company in her 2nd career start here. Has a ton of speed and would expect her to send for the lead. 1/2 sister to 176k career earner Lostintranzlation. Ran .41 seconds faster than Say Yes Sally did on the same Nov 9th card. Think she is talented but is going to have to be able to withstand pace pressure from others and still be able to hold off the closers late. Her last win makes her competitive with these.

8- No Cover Charge (Reyes/ Wong): Kafwain filly is a perfect 2/2 lifetime sprinting and goes out for leading trainer Jonathan Wong. Set the pace routing last time in the Pike Place Dancer and faded in the lane to finish 4th. 2 races back she won by a commanding 6 lengths in a Starter Allowance over the main track going 5 1/2 furlongs. Been in front at the 1st and 2nd call in all 3 of her races. Has a lot of zip and will either go for the lead or sit very close to it.

#3 No Cover Charge

9- Misirlou (Alvarado/ Specht): Talented filly has really done nothing wrong so far and is likely to be the betting favorite. 55k yearling purchase is a full sister to former El Camino Real Derby winner Zakaroff. Coming off 3-straight wins, all of which were over this tapeta surface. Very versatile and has shown the ability to win by sitting close to lead or by coming from out of it. Her win against the boys on Sep 29th was very impressive and really showed to me that she has a ton of talent. Won very professionally last time out. Think she is going to let the speed go and take back into a nice spot on the outside in the clear. Coming off a 5f work in 1:00 on Nov 24th. Should be ready to run.

#1 Habobanero, #4 Misirlou, #5 Smokin Hot Bobbie

Pace scenario:

Oh man, this is a tough one to project. A lot of these runners are so lightly raced, that it is going to be hard to estimate what kind of trip they’re going to sit in here. I see Mishievous Curlin going for the lead and No Cover Charge sticking to her from her outside. Habobanero, Stradari, and Eclair are to their inside and they all have some speed. Say Yes Sally has speed but I see her sitting back just off the leaders. Shanghai Keely, and Misirlou will grab a stalking position and get to see how things in front of them unfold. Smokin Hot Bobbie will be towards the back of the field.

Selections: 2-9-1-4

#2 Shanghai Keely 8/1– Form is muddied up but think she has a lot of ability. Will need to work out a trip from the inside. Great value if she stays around 8/1.

#9 Misirlou 5/2– Talented filly is looking for her 4th straight win. Should sit a nice trip outside. Versatility helps. One to beat.

#1 Stradari 6/1– Return to GGF should benefit her. See her sitting a good trip just behind the leaders. Debut win was legit.

#4 Eclair 9/2– SoCal shipper has been knocking heads with some talented runners down south. Tapeta shouldn’t be a problem. Hernandez has been hot.

A.P Pharoah’s Debut, Horses to Watch list, and Weekly Update

I was there on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields for the anticipated debut of A.P. Pharoah. I believe he was the 1st Northern California runner from Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. The hype and buzz on A.P. Pharoah was strong as the public sent him off as the 1/2 favorite in this 1m turf race. He had 3 bullet 6f workouts on the form coming into this race and was also the stablemate to Breeders Cup Juvenile runner-up Anneau d’Or, who his trainer Blaine Wright ran in a similar maiden race just a few months back. He broke ok and it was clear that Juan Hernandez wanted to put him into the race early. Unfortunately for him, Malakai Moxie hooked him from when they rounded the first turn and there was a duel up the entire backstretch. Those 2 would duke it out the whole way, and into the stretch it looked for a second like A.P. Pharoah would pull away. However, he ended up getting tired in the last 1/16th and faded to 4th. The hot fractions of 23.19 and 47.85 along with a duel up front really set things up– the horses that sat 2nd to last and last ended up finishing 1-2 respectively. Being in a speed duel, especially on the inside of one, is tough to overcome and forces you to expend a lot of energy. I think he would have had every shot to win if he switched posts with Malakai Moxie because he would have been able to relax just outside the speed. A.P Pharoah should have gained plenty of experience from this start and should benefit him in the future. I am by no means saying he is going to be as good as American Pharaoh, but it is something to note that even he did not win on his debut.

In the paddock prior to the race, I got to take a look at him, and wow was I impressed. He is a big/strong colt and looked like he had a long stride to him. You could tell that he had a lot of class to him. There was a brief moment where he acted up a little and kicked the paddock stall, but he is still just a 2yo and will mature as he gets more experience. American Pharoah progeny have had a lot of success on turf thus far, but it didn’t seem to me like turf was a surface that he particularly cared for. The dam side (A.P. Indy) of the pedigree seems all dirt and long distances. Also, A.P. Pharoah is a half brother to G1 winner Moreno, and the 2nd dam was a Queens Plate winner. It seemed that distance was more of an importance than surface for this debut run. I think there is a lot of upside with him and hopefully there is a 2-turn spot for him at the end of next month.

Here are 2 horses from last week to add to the ‘Horses to Watch’ list

‘Horses to Watch’ highlights horses that should be followed for potential wagering options in the future. Virtual stables or stable mail are good tools to help you follow along.

Miss Ryleigh (Nov 22: Race 3) Broke a tad slow from the 2 post and was outpaced early. She found herself in last and had to be a good 8-lengths behind the leaders. While she did get a setup, she did run on very strongly late to just get up for 2nd. Finished 1 3/4 lengths behind a really nice 2yo filly in Dynasty of Her Own. We’ve seen trainer William Delia have success with Boat Trip progeny already as Bettor Trip Nick won the Golden Nugget Stakes.

#2 Miss Ryleigh

Egyptian Goddess (Nov 23: Race 4) Stumbled out of the gate and horse to her inside veered out a bit from the start, so was forced to drop back to last. Was 7 plus lengths behind a loose even-money favorite that set fractions of 23.19 and 48.57. Rallied on well in the stretch to grab 3rd and galloped out well. Seems like she’s progressed well at 2 -turns, it is just her form has been muddied up a bit. If she can break cleanly and get into the race earlier she will have every chance next time out.

#7 Egyptian Goddess

Update:

  • Strong group of 9 2yo fillies line up in Friday’s 50k Golden Gate Debutante. Preview will be up tomorrow or Thursday.
  • Mugaritz headlines a group of 18 nominations for Saturday’s G3 Berkeley Handicap. Field will be drawn Wednesday and a preview will be up Thursday or Friday.
  • Graded Stakes Winner and Golden Gate Fields track record holder, Keeper ofthe Stars runs in the G3 Red Carpet Handicap on Saturday at Del Mar for trainer Jonathan Wong. She is coming off 3 consecutive bullet workouts.
  • On 11/23, Breeders Cup Juvenile runner-up Anneau d’Or worked 5f in 1:00.20 in preparation for the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity on December 7th.
  • Jockey Juan Hernandez had an impressive 8-win weekend– he took down 5 races on Saturday and 3 on Sunday. He currently holds a 13-win lead in the jockey standings.
  • Jonathan Wong holds a 4-win lead over Isidro Tamayo in the trainer standings.
  • Nominations for the 75k Gold Rush Stakes close on Thursday (Nov. 28th)
  • Racing resumes Thursday with an 8-race Thanksgiving Day program. 1st post is 11:15am https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=ONSC-GG-20191128D
  • Entries for Friday’s card. Headlined by the 50k Golden Gate Debutante https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=ONSC-GG-20191129D

Oakland Stakes Recap, Horses to Watch List, & Updates

Last Saturday we saw a breakout performance from 3yo sprinter Baja Sur. He started his career at Emerald Downs and was able to win his first 4 starts, all in impressive fashion. Then, his trainer Blaine Wright took him to Northern California and Baja Sur’s first NorCal start would be in the Harris Farm Stakes at Fresno. He ran a strong 2nd that day and proved that he could compete at this level. His next start would be in the Oakland Stakes, which he went on to win by a commanding 4 1/4 lengths this past weekend. The final time was 1:08.68 for 6f, which earned him a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. His speed figures continue to get faster, and he is on the rise as an improving 3yo. There were 2 things he proved in this race that impressed me. Those were that he was able to handle the synthetic surface, and that he was able to sit-off of the pace. Juan Hernandez gave him a nice ride from the 2 hole, and was able to get him to relax very easily before wheeling him out. Blaine Wright said in an interview with the SF Chronicle that he believes Baja Sur can route— that leaves plenty of options for his next start. If he stays sprinting then this is quite the 1-2 punch in the sprint division for the Wright barn. He trains both Baja Sur and Lost In the Fog Stakes winner Anyportinastorm.

Runner-up in the Oakland Stakes was Sigur Ros. His trainer Andy Mathis has done a great job getting him back into form. This 5yo Gemologist gelding is what you might call a “synthetics specialist”– he is 6-4-1-0 lifetime on the tapeta. He shot straight to the lead and looked like he was still full of run despite setting quick fractions of 21.75 and 44.12. In the stretch, he didn’t come back to the field, Baja Sur just powered past him. Sigur Ros ran his 2nd consecutive Beyer of 91 and proved he can hang at this level. The favorite Oiseau de Guerre ran his race, it just was not good enough. He loomed up on the inside on the turn, but just couldn’t cut into the margin in the stretch. His 88 Beyer was consistent with his last 2 efforts, where he earned 88 and 90 Beyers respectively. Smokey Image ran a much improved race (88 Beyer) and grinded away in the stretch for 4th. His gallop-out was very strong and looks like he could improve with more distance– the lightbulb may have come back on.

Just 3 days of racing last week, but I still wanted to add a few runners to the ‘Horses to Watch’ list. The last one did really well in terms of views so this is going to be something I want to do on a more consistent basis.

‘Horses to Watch’ highlights horses that should be followed for potential wagering options in the future. Virtual stables or stable mail are good tools to help you follow along.

Moonlight Mystique (Nov 15: Race 5) Was sent off as the longest shot in the field in this 6-horse 6250 claimer on the turf. She settled well off the pace and made a big move in-hand on the turn. At the 1/8th poll she looked loaded, but was boxed in with nowhere to go. If you see the head-on replay you can see that she had to swing from the 1-path to the 5-path after her momentum was stopped. I believe she would have been right there at the wire if she was able to get a clean run. Hopefully we can see her back at this level on the grass next time out.

#3 Moonlight Mystique

Madame Overserved (Nov 17: Race 4) 3yo filly was sent off at 7/2 in her career debut here for trainer Reid France. Has a great pedigree as she is by Curlin and out of the Foxhound mare Foxy Socks (multiple graded stakes winner). Madame Overserved is also a full sister to multiple stakes winner Curlin’s Fox. She broke good and sat in a stalking position. In the stretch she ran on really well to just miss by a neck on the wire. Looks talented and seems like one that could improve off that debut. 2 turns should fit her well.

#2 Madame Overserved

Updates:

  • Breeders Cup Juvenile runner-up Anneau d’Or posted his first workout since his race. Worked 4f in 48.60 on 11/16. His next start is likely to be in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity.
  • Joseph T. Grace Stakes winner Mugaritz worked 5f in 1:00.80 on 11/16. The G3 Berkeley Handicap on Nov 30th seems like a likely spot for him.
  • The next stakes race is the Golden Gate Debutante on 11/29, and should feature a strong/competitive field.
  • Recent impressive debut-winning 2yo Laura’s Light has been privately purchased and is now in the barn of Peter Miller. She is nominated to the G3 Jimmy Durante Stakes, along with Been Studying Her, Bulletproof One, and Wise Rachel.
  • Ari Herbertson’s Premium Forest has been nominated to the $110,000 Iron Horse at Gulfstream Park– it is a part of the Claiming Crown event
  • Live racing resumes Thursday at Golden Gate Fields with a 7-race card. Here is the overnight https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=ONSC-GG-20191121D

2019 Oakland Stakes Preview

A field of 7 line up for Saturday’s 50k Oakland Stakes at Golden Gate Fields. It is a competitive group and it will be interesting to see who is able to come out on top. There is a ton of legit sprint speed in here and I am excited to see some of our top sprinters throw down. Last week’s Golden Nugget Stakes did not go to plan for the blog, so let’s get back on track this week. I am going to go over each runner in the field below.

Here is a list of the past 5 Oakland Stakes winners:

2018- Touched by Autism

2017- Right Hand Man

2016- Star Student

2015- Star Student

2014- Outside Nashville

1- Oiseau de Guerre (Couton/ McCarthy)- This 5yo War Front gelding is looking for his 4th consecutive win (all at 6f over the tapeta). He has always shown some talent in the past, but he has really seemed to blossom once he got onto the tapeta. Breaking from the rail usually isn’t too ideal, but there is other speed in here so he can take back get a comfortable spot. He broke from the rail in his last race and I would imagine he is going to sit a similar trip to that race. In that last start on the far turn he was beginning to make his move off the pace, but had to check pretty bad and fell out of it. He would regain his momentum and rally on to get the win. Will he be able to get up in time in the Oakland Stakes?

#1 Oiseau de Guerre, #4 Indian Zip

2- Baja Sur (Hernandez/ Wright)- An impressive 4 for 5 lifetime. Ran 2nd by a 1/2 length in the Harris Farm Stakes at Fresno. Has a ton of early zip and would expect him to be in the mix early (all of his races he’s been on the lead, but he does seem ratable) Races at Emerald Downs were solid and he looks like an improving 3yo. All 5 of his races have been on dirt, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the tapeta. His last race in the Harris Farm Stakes was really odd– after breaking from the inside he took the lead, then fell into 2nd and was under pressure to keep up with new leader Myfriendemma, then found his stride again on the turn, swung out into the 2 path and stayed on well. Here is a replay of his last win below.

#4 Baja Sur

3- Smokey Image (Martinez/ Gaines): Former NorCal 2yo powerhouse makes his way up North for the first time since his juvenile season. Surprisingly has never raced at Golden Gate Fields. More of a precocious type as his last win came in January of his 3yo season. 6yo gelding has been knocking heads with state-bred stakes company down south. Some of his figures from 2018 put him in the ballpark here, but his 3 races this year have not been close. Maybe the return to Northern California will get him back to his winning ways.

4- Quick and Silver (Amador/ Ramos): Hard knocking 8yo has serious speed and is coming off of a close 2nd to Sequentially at the 40k claimer level. Going to face a lot of other speed in here and has not shown much ability in the past to sit-off others. Won a claimer on Sep 22 and ran .41 seconds faster than Oiseau de Guerre did in an Allowance race earlier that day. Amador opts for Quick and Silver over stablemate My Friend Emma. Wheeling back in just 13 days and moves back up to stakes company. A lot of factors in here that he is going to have to overcome.

5- Sigur Ros (Gonzalez/ Mathis): Improving 5yo gelding is an impressive 4 for 5 lifetime over the tapeta. Won at the 16k claiming level 2 back by 6 lengths, and then at the 25k level in his last start by 4 lengths. While he is jumping up a ton in class to the stakes level here, his last race was fast and very impressive– he stopped the clock in a swift 1:08.64. Looks like the speed of the speed in here and his last race was legit. Improving type steps up to a top level here and faces plenty of other speed horses.

#7 Sigur Ros

6- Indian Zip (Alvarado/ Steiner): Coming off a close 2nd to morning line favorite Oiseau de Guerre in his last start (margin says 1/2 length but it looked more like a neck). 3yo Indian Evening gelding has continued to improve throughout the year and his last puts him in the mix here. Can take back and should have a lot of speed in front of him to set things up. In 7 lifetime starts at 6f, he has 3 wins, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds.

7- My Friend Emma (Monroy/ Ramos): Former stakes winner was last seen running 6th in the California Flag Handicap at Santa Anita on turf. 2 starts back was 3rd in the Harris Farm Stakes. 3 starts back was a close 2nd to Oiseau de Guerre over today’s course and distance. Classy and has been competitive at this level. Form seems to be tailing a off a little bit but his maybe a return to the tapeta will get him back to form. Has speed but not sure if he will be on the lead since he’s on the outside. Could see him making an early move to grab the lead though. Amador hops off to ride stablemate Quick and Silver in here.

Pace Scenario:

There is a ton of speed in here and it is tough to decipher who is going to send and who is going to take back. Sigur Ros and Quick and Silver are the 2 I think are most likely to send. Baja Sur could be forced to go with them from the inside, but has the ability to rate if needed. My Friend Emma has a lot of speed too and I see him rating just off the leaders from the outside. Smokey Image, and Indian Zip are going to get in a comfortable stalking spot. Oiseau de Guerre will be close to them waiting for thing to unfold up front.

Selections: 1-6-2-7

#1 Oiseau de Guerre (2/1)– Is going good right now and should get a great setup. Loves the tapeta.

#6 Indian Zip (8/1)– Should sit a nice trip and will try to get the jump on Oiseau de Guerre. Improving 3yo.

#2 Baja Sur (5/2)– Lightly raced 3yo has some races that make him competitive here. How will he handle the tapeta?

#7 My Friend Emma (6/1)– Should sit a good trip on the outside and I think he will be able to hang on for a piece underneath.

2019 Golden Nugget Stakes Preview

The 2yos take center stage on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields as a competitive field of 6 line up in the $50,000 6f Golden Nugget Stakes. Some formidable Southern California shippers are heading North to take on a solid Northern California contingent. This race has been primarily dominated by horses based in Northern California, but 2 of the past 3 winners have had their prior race at Santa Anita. This is a fun stake and I am going to analyze each runner in the field.

Here is a list of the past 5 Golden Nugget Stakes winners:

2018- Tivan

2017- Runaway Ghost

2016- Righthand Man

2015- Code Warrior

2014- Stalk the Wildcat

1- Call Me Peppy (Gonzalez/ Psarras): Took some money on debut and ran a decent 2nd at Pleasanton. Came out of that to run a distant 7th behind Bulletproof One in the Everett Nevin Stakes. Got outpaced early in those sprint races, so went 2 turns in start #3 to break his maiden in a 1m off-the-turf race at Santa Rosa. Sat a perfect trip that day and powered home well in the stretch behind a speed duel. 3-month layoff here. Looks like a router. Maybe trying to set him up for the Gold Rush Stakes next month?

2- Doc Tommy (Hernandez/ Sadler): Last-out winner is coming off a 3 month layoff. After he broke his maiden by 4-lengths in front running fashion at Golden Gate Fields, he was privately purchased and moved to John Sadler’s barn in Southern California. Been working steadily down there and should be fit for this. Has a lot of natural speed, and you have to figure he will be in the mix early here.

#1 Doc Tommy

3- Blaisin’ Eamon (Alvarado/ Specht): Son of US Ranger has improved in all three of his lifetime starts based on speed figures. Was really against the bias on debut at Santa Rosa and still ran a good 3rd. Came out of that to break his maiden emphatically by 5 lengths over today’s track and distance. Then was last seen running behind stablemate Misirlou in an Allowance race. He set a very quick pace while dueling on the inside that day. Held on well in the stretch for 3rd and still had a big gallop out. Been forced to send in his last 2 races because he’s had to break from the inside. Works have been steady and fits on numbers.

#1 Blaisin’ Eamon #7 No Longer Silent

4- Fore Left (Antongeorgi/ O’Neill): Southern California shipper is the likely favorite and is by far the class of the field. Won the 150k Tremont back in June at Belmont and was 3rd in the G2 Best Pal at Del Mar. Last out he won the 70k Sunny Slope Stakes at Santa Anita in a gate-to-wire score. His sire is Twirling Candy, so the synthetic surface should be no problem for him based on pedigree. Has a lot of speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead– gives Antongeorgi some options.

#4 Fore Left

5- Bettor Trip Nick (Martinez/ Delia): Son of Boat Trip has progressed nicely– he broke his maiden in a 25k mcl on debut and then 2 starts later won a STR50 race by 2 1/2 lengths. Has a lot of speed and it will be interesting to see what he does from post 5. Is close on numbers but this is a big step up in class.

#3 Bettor Trip Nick

6- No Longer Silent (Frey/ Wong): Coming off a dominant 7-length Allowance score on October 19th. Took command of the race early that day and opened up on the field as the odds-on favorite. Ran 2nd in the Misirlou race on September 29th and finished 3/4 of a length ahead of Blaisin’ Eamon– showed in that race that he doesn’t need the lead. Has a perfect post here and can stay outside the speed. His trainer Jonathan Wong is rolling right now and should have No Longer Silent ready to fire. The son of Minister’s Wildcat is progressing well and has improved in all 4 starts.

#6 No Longer Silent

Pace scenario:

It will be interesting to see how the pace shapes up, as 5 of the 6 horses in here have speed. While Doc Tommy is coming off a 3-month layoff, it appears that he is the quickest from the gate– his hand is likely forced to send since he’s breaking from post 2. Blaisin’ Eamon could shadow Doc Tommy away from the gate and sit close in 2nd. Fore Left will probably have to rate just off the speed here. With the speed to their inside, I think Bettor Trip Nick and No Longer Silent will sit off of it on the outside. Call Me Poppy doesn’t have the early speed of these and will be out the back.

Selections: 3-6-4-2

#3 Blaisin’ Eamon (6/1)– I thought his last was better than looked and he should take a step forward in this spot. Tactical running style should help. Good value.

#6 No Longer Silent (5/2)– Got the best draw and Frey will be able to place him wherever he wants. Progressive type that’s coming off big win.

#4 Fore Left (6/5)– By far the class of the field. Has had a testing campaign this year. Short price. Pedigree to handle the tapeta.

#2 Doc Tommy (3/1)– Layoff, but Sadler should have him ready and could definitely move him up. Will be up front with a clean break and is going to try to hold everyone off.

Horses to Watch (November 2-3)

There were some really exciting races last week, but unfortunately I do not have enough time to recap them. Thought this would be a good time to bring back the ‘Horses to Watch’ list, as I had gotten some good feedback on them earlier in the year.

‘Horses to Watch’ highlights horses that should be followed for potential wagering options in the future. Virtual stables or stable mail are good tools to help you follow along.

There are 3 horses featured on this week’s list.

Silver Moment (Nov 2: Race 3) You are probably wondering why a horse that ran 5th beaten 11 1/4 lengths made this list… Silver Moment was making his career debut on Saturday and showed some ability. If he stays around this 2yo 12.5k MCL level next time out he should be in with a good shot. His trainer Ed Moger is not the greatest with 1st time starters as he is just 4% with his last 67 FTS– his runners seem to do better with racing under their belts. This $7300 NCAUG purchase by Marino Marini took some money at the windows and was sent off at 9/2. He broke sharp and found himself dueling on a super quick pace for the level (21.33 for 1/4 and 44.94 for the 1/2). Ran into a buzzsaw that day and faded as expected on the turn to finish 5th. Old School Charmer was the one he dueled with and ended up winning by 5 lengths– it seemed like he could have very well won at the 25k level with that performance. Silver Moment has a very precocious pedigree too, so look for this 2yo to make some noise next time out.

#9 Silver Moment

Mr. Fireball (Nov 2: Race 7) While Mr. Fireball was a perfect 2 for 2 coming into this, he had not shown he could run at this ALW level– he was sent off at odds of 15-1. This son of Peppered Cat proved me wrong by finishing 3rd. The pace in here was quick (21.85 for the 1/4 and 44.51 for the 1/2) but the race flow seemed to favor those near the lead. The top 2 finishers were 1-2 all the way around, and the 4th place finisher was sitting in 3rd early on. After sitting in 6th, Mr. Fireball made a strong run and showed a lot of energy in the lane. He proved he could hang at this level and earned a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 78 in doing so. Lookout for this improving 3yo next time.

#2 Mr. Fireball

Ajourneytofreedom (Nov 3: Race 8) While he is going to be a short-price next time out, he could be a single in your multi-race bets. In his debut in September he was outpaced early and ran on evenly. His trainer Blaine Wright added blinkers and his works ever since have been sharp. On Sunday he broke alertly but after a few strides out of the gate he veered in very sharply– maybe it had to do with the gap from the temporary rail to the main track? He regrouped and made a move up the rail. Unfortunately he got boxed in behind a wall of horses. Later on the turn he had finally found an opening, but he still had 5 horses to beat. Not to mention, the pace was very slow up front (1/4 in 22.62 and 1/2 in 45.65). He accelerated with a strong turn of foot in the stretch, but just ran out of real estate. Would love to see him go 2-turns next race as he has the pedigree for it (1/2 brother to Anothertwistafate by Hard Spun).

#5 Ajourneytofreedom

2019 Joseph T. Grace Stakes Preview

Grecian Fire in the paddock prior to the 2019 San Francisco Mile

The 50k Joseph T. Grace Stakes (formerly known as the Joseph T. Grace Handicap) was a staple at Santa Rosa for many years during the fair until they stopped running it this year. Luckily Golden Gate Fields picked it up and added it to their stellar Fall Meet Stakes Schedule. A strong field of 9 is signed on for Saturday’s race going 1 1/16m on the grass, and I am going to do a runner-by-runner breakdown below.

1- Builder (Orozco/Tamayo): Coming off a close 2nd by 3/4 of a length to Lymebyrd on the main track in an Allowance race. The start before that he ran a nice 2nd in the Rolling Green Stakes behind Restrainedvengence (run over same course and distance). He sat a perfect trip that day while rating to the outside of the leader on a slow pace, but just couldn’t quicken with the run away winner. More of a grinder/plodding type. Has some tactical speed and should save a lot of ground on the inside. Orozco and Tamayo are 28% together at Golden Gate Fields.

Rolling Green Stakes Replay: #2 Cafe Flavor, #3 Builder, #7 Tortosa

2- Cafe Flavor (Couton/Gallagher): Ran 4th last time out in the Rolling Green Stakes off a year-plus layoff. Had a huge gallop out that day, and should improve here in his 2nd start of the year. Southern California shipper will be running on late. Ultimately think he want’s further than the 8.5f here. Should move forward, but faces a tough group today.

3- Tortosa (Martinez/Bautista): The 2018 Alcatraz Stakes winner made his 1st start since that race in September’s Rolling Green Stakes. Drawn wide that day and was in the 4-path the whole way around– made a strong move on the turn under pressure, and couldn’t sustain his run. Think he got a lot out of that race. Looks like theres more pace in here to set things up. Martinez and Bautista are a very strong 29% when they team up at Golden Gate Fields. Interesting horse underneath.

4- Camino Del Paraiso (Hernandez/Jauregui): If you follow racing at Golden Gate Fields, then this hard-knocking 6yo gelding is one that you are probably familiar with. He was coming off a 6-month layoff in his last start and ran very well in what appeared to be a total prep race (6f Allowance on the main track). He sat back and made a nice steady run in the lane to be 2nd against a stakes level field– good gallop out too. Coming off a bullet 5f work in 1:00.2 on October 24th. He is winless in 7 tries on this turf course, but does have 3 2nds. Regular rider Ricky Gonzalez opts to ride Mugaritz, but getting a top rider in Juan Hernandez is not too bad of a replacement. A fun fact about Camino Del Paraiso is that he was a very narrow runner-up in this race in 2017 when it was run at Santa Rosa. Screws should be tightened and will be trying to run on late.

#2 Camino Del Paraiso

5- Arch Prince (Pena/Calvario): Took down a 25k Optional Claimer on the main track last out going a mile. Only 2 starts on turf were distant 3rd place efforts. Numbers are well behind the top contenders in here. See him sitting in a stalking position.

#8 Arch Prince

6- Respect the Hustle (Frey/McLean): Ran 5th behind Mugaritz in the Bulldog Handicap last time out. Grinding type that usually sits close to the pace. Has shown success over all 3 surfaces and is stakes-placed on the turf. Numbers are behind, and needs to take a step forward.

#1 Mugaritz #4 Respect the Hustle

7- Grecian Fire (Antongeorgi/Desormeaux): The G3 All American Stakes winner makes his Golden Gate Fields return on Saturday. Most likely found the distance too challenging in the 10f G2 John Henry Turf Championship last time out. Was 3rd by 3/4 of a length in the G2 Del Mar Handicap 2-starts back. If you look through his pp’s his best runs have come over the Del Mar Turf course. Is 1/4 lifetime on the Golden Gate lawn. See him sitting a midpack trip. By far the class of the field and is definitely the one to beat.

#7 Grecian Fire

8- Sixes (Alvarado/Wong): The clear speed of the race. Won a 32k claimer going 1m on this turf course 2 starts back. The figure he earned that day puts him in the ballpark. Ran on evenly after he wasn’t able to get the lead against a speedy Many Roses in a main-track Allowance race last time out. He is a horse that runs well when everything goes his way– his best races have all been on the lead. Alvarado and Wong are 28% together. While he does project to get loose on the lead here, it remains to be seen if he can compete at this stakes level.

#4 Sixes

9- Mugaritz (Gonzalez/Wong): Local fan-favorite Mugaritz is going for his 5th straight win. Made his first start since March in the Bull Dog Handicap on October 13th at Fresno and won by 6 1/2 lengths going away. While he did get an easy lead on a slow pace in the Bull Dog, I would not hold that against him considering his running style. He has shown the ability to win on the lead, rating, and stalking– his tactical style gives him a big advantage. He only has 1 prior race on the grass, and it was in a Starter Allowance on the turf course in December of 2018. He must be sharp right now if his connections are running him back in 20-days off a big win (could have easily waited for the G3 Berkeley Handicap at the end of the month). His numbers are a bit behind Grecian Fire, but he appears to be an improving horse. Will likely be sitting just off the pace.

Pace scenario: Sixes appears to be the clear-cut speed here and will be trying to take them all the way. While Mugaritz is drawn out wide, he projects to sit a nice outside trip behind his stablemate. Builder could show a bit more speed early from the rail to grab a stalking position along with Respect the Hustle. I see Camino Del Paraiso, Arch Prince, and Grecian Fire sitting midpack here. Cafe Flavor and Tortosa will likely be at the back.

Selections: 9-7-4-3

#9 Mugaritz (2/1)– I see him sitting a beautiful trip here just outside the speed and taking command turning for home. Will get the jump on the closers and I think he will have enough in the lane to hold them off. He is a bit behind on figures, but I see him taking another step forward here to claim his 5th straight win.

#7 Grecian Fire (8/5)– The one to beat on paper. Is taking a big drop from G2 company to a listed stakes. Will be trying to run Mugaritz down.

#4 Camino Del Paraiso (9/2)– Think he is sitting on a good race off that last sprint effort. Just 4 for 30 lifetime. But has run 2nd 9-times. See him being in the mix here.

#3 Tortosa (20/1)– Should have gotten a lot out of his last race and has more pace to run into here. Will save some ground from post 3 and could see him clunking up for a piece underneath at a big price.

2019 Pike Place Dancer Stakes Preview

The $75,000 Pike Place Dancer Stakes is the first of four 2yo stakes during the Fall meet at Golden Gate Fields. It is for 2yo fillies going 1m on the turf and will be run as the 7th race on Saturday’s 10-race card. While this year’s race did not draw the largest field, it is still a very competitive one.

Here is a list of the last 5 Pike Place Dancer winners.

2018: Lakerball

2017: Multiplayer

2016: Simmy’s Temple

2015: Stays in Vegas

2014: Sharla Rae

1- Shanghai Keely (Orozco/Herbertson): This talented daughter of Shanghai Bobby broke her maiden very impressively by 6 lengths back in July at Pleasanton. She then went into the deep end and ran a solid 4th behind Amalfi Sunrise in the G2 Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar– stayed on fairly well despite a wide trip. Class drop here. Strong work tab, so should be ready off the layoff. Seems like a filly that will appreciate going 2 turns. Her pedigree does not suggest turf at all, so surface is definitely a question mark for her heading into this race. Irving Orozco should have plenty of options from the inside, as this filly seems very versatile.

Shanghai Keely broke from the outside in post 6

2- No Cover Charge (Couton/Wong): Done nothing wrong as she is a perfect 2 for 2. She is 1 of 2 entrants in this race for leading trainer Jonathan Wong. Debuted in a 25kMCL race at Santa Rosa and prevailed by a nose. The lightbulb must have gone on after that race, because in her next start she won a 50kSTRALW by 6 lengths (3rd place finisher Just Classy came back to win a Starter Allowance). Filly has a lot of speed and I would imagine she will be on the lead here. Quick works heading into this one. Very precocious pedigree with Kafwain on the top and Unbridled’s Song on the bottom. Do not see much turf in the pedigree. Distance and surface are question marks for her.

#3 No Cover Charge

3- Convoluted (Hernandez/Miller): Southern California shipper is coming off a distant 2nd in the Phone Chatter Stakes at Los Alamitos. The winner of that race (Quality Response) came back to run 7th in the G1 Frizette Stakes. Her 1 turf try was in the the 100k Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar where she finished 7th by 8 and 3/4 lengths. Convoluted had a bit of trouble on the first turn, got into decent position on the backstretch, and finished up pretty one-paced in the stretch. I would imagine she will sit in a stalking position in Saturday’s race. Her speed figures are a bit behind the others in here, but has some class. The pedigree and connections are there, but is she fast enough?

Convoluted: Post position 1 in Black, Orange, Blue Silks.

4- Wise Rachel (Gomez/Howey): Pulled off the upset victory in her debut at Pleasanton in June. Since then, she went to Del Mar and ran 3rd and 4th respectively in 2 Cal Bred Stakes. All 3 of her starts have been sprinting on the dirt, and now stretches out to 2 turns on the turf. She is by English Channel and out of a Smarty Jones mare, so has both turf and distance in the pedigree. In the Generous Portion Stakes she got away slowly from the inside and was outpaced early. She dropped back to last by about 9 lengths and was left with a lot to do. She made a decent bid on the outside to end up 4th against a solid field. Wise Rachel has improved in all 3 starts, and I would have to think the surface and distance will only move her up. Will be running on late.

Wise Rachel post #1

5- Colombian Gold (Antongeorgi/Lerner): Southern California shipper is still a maiden and is coming off a 5th place effort in a turf sprint at Santa Anita. Lerner is a very capable trainer and has had some success at Golden Gate Fields over the last year or so. Ran a decent debut at Del Mar, was on the lead and faded late– tough to win going 2 turns first out. Stretches back out to a route here. Numbers are slow but seems to be improving. Needs to find more in this spot.

#9 Colombian Gold’s debut

6- The Adrie Factor (Frey/Wong): Thought this filly had talent, but was disappointed with her first 2 starts as she showed nothing in the sprint efforts. Made her 2 turn debut against the boys in an off-the-turf race at Santa Rosa where she set really quick fractions and tired out to finish second in a demanding race. Then, once she got put on the turf course, she was able to put it all together– she scored by 3 1/2 lengths in what was a visually impressive effort. Habobanero, who ran 5th in this race, came back to break her maiden last week. Turf routing is what she wants to do and draws a nice outside post in this spot. Kyle Frey will have a lot options to put her where he wants to.

#4 The Adrie Factor

Pace scenario: I think No Cover Charge will be sent from the 2 hole and go straight for the lead. Colombian Gold will probably sit close in 2nd. Shanghai Keely has some speed, but I think she will stalk the leaders and save ground on the rail. The Adrie Factor has options from her post. I see her stalking the leaders and sitting a similar trip to her last win. Convoluted should grab a stalking position too. Wise Rachel will likely be out the back.

Selections: 4-1-6-5

#4 Wise Rachel (5/1)– Has nice prior races on dirt, but think she wants to route on the turf. Pace in front of her should be solid enough, and will be flying late. Has improved in every start and should take a step forward here. Great value if you can get around the 5/1ml.

#1 Shanghai Keely (7/2)– I think this filly is super talented and is going to appreciate the route of ground. Should be ready to fire off the layoff. Only reservation I have is how she is going to handle the turf.

#6 The Adrie Factor (9/5)– Last start was impressive and is the filly to beat based on the fact that she has the fastest turf race out of anyone in the field. Caught a talented group here and a short price is tough to take.

#5 Colombian Gold (15/1)– Still a maiden but seems like she is improving. Form is muddied up. Can maybe catch a piece underneath.