Last Saturday we saw a breakout performance from 3yo sprinter Baja Sur. He started his career at Emerald Downs and was able to win his first 4 starts, all in impressive fashion. Then, his trainer Blaine Wright took him to Northern California and Baja Sur’s first NorCal start would be in the Harris Farm Stakes at Fresno. He ran a strong 2nd that day and proved that he could compete at this level. His next start would be in the Oakland Stakes, which he went on to win by a commanding 4 1/4 lengths this past weekend. The final time was 1:08.68 for 6f, which earned him a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. His speed figures continue to get faster, and he is on the rise as an improving 3yo. There were 2 things he proved in this race that impressed me. Those were that he was able to handle the synthetic surface, and that he was able to sit-off of the pace. Juan Hernandez gave him a nice ride from the 2 hole, and was able to get him to relax very easily before wheeling him out. Blaine Wright said in an interview with the SF Chronicle that he believes Baja Sur can route— that leaves plenty of options for his next start. If he stays sprinting then this is quite the 1-2 punch in the sprint division for the Wright barn. He trains both Baja Sur and Lost In the Fog Stakes winner Anyportinastorm.

Runner-up in the Oakland Stakes was Sigur Ros. His trainer Andy Mathis has done a great job getting him back into form. This 5yo Gemologist gelding is what you might call a “synthetics specialist”– he is 6-4-1-0 lifetime on the tapeta. He shot straight to the lead and looked like he was still full of run despite setting quick fractions of 21.75 and 44.12. In the stretch, he didn’t come back to the field, Baja Sur just powered past him. Sigur Ros ran his 2nd consecutive Beyer of 91 and proved he can hang at this level. The favorite Oiseau de Guerre ran his race, it just was not good enough. He loomed up on the inside on the turn, but just couldn’t cut into the margin in the stretch. His 88 Beyer was consistent with his last 2 efforts, where he earned 88 and 90 Beyers respectively. Smokey Image ran a much improved race (88 Beyer) and grinded away in the stretch for 4th. His gallop-out was very strong and looks like he could improve with more distance– the lightbulb may have come back on.

Just 3 days of racing last week, but I still wanted to add a few runners to the ‘Horses to Watch’ list. The last one did really well in terms of views so this is going to be something I want to do on a more consistent basis.

‘Horses to Watch’ highlights horses that should be followed for potential wagering options in the future. Virtual stables or stable mail are good tools to help you follow along.

Moonlight Mystique (Nov 15: Race 5) Was sent off as the longest shot in the field in this 6-horse 6250 claimer on the turf. She settled well off the pace and made a big move in-hand on the turn. At the 1/8th poll she looked loaded, but was boxed in with nowhere to go. If you see the head-on replay you can see that she had to swing from the 1-path to the 5-path after her momentum was stopped. I believe she would have been right there at the wire if she was able to get a clean run. Hopefully we can see her back at this level on the grass next time out.

Madame Overserved (Nov 17: Race 4) 3yo filly was sent off at 7/2 in her career debut here for trainer Reid France. Has a great pedigree as she is by Curlin and out of the Foxhound mare Foxy Socks (multiple graded stakes winner). Madame Overserved is also a full sister to multiple stakes winner Curlin’s Fox. She broke good and sat in a stalking position. In the stretch she ran on really well to just miss by a neck on the wire. Looks talented and seems like one that could improve off that debut. 2 turns should fit her well.

Updates:

• Breeders Cup Juvenile runner-up Anneau d’Or posted his first workout since his race. Worked 4f in 48.60 on 11/16. His next start is likely to be in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity.
• Joseph T. Grace Stakes winner Mugaritz worked 5f in 1:00.80 on 11/16. The G3 Berkeley Handicap on Nov 30th seems like a likely spot for him.
• The next stakes race is the Golden Gate Debutante on 11/29, and should feature a strong/competitive field.
• Recent impressive debut-winning 2yo Laura’s Light has been privately purchased and is now in the barn of Peter Miller. She is nominated to the G3 Jimmy Durante Stakes, along with Been Studying Her, Bulletproof One, and Wise Rachel.
• Ari Herbertson’s Premium Forest has been nominated to the $110,000 Iron Horse at Gulfstream Park– it is a part of the Claiming Crown event
• Live racing resumes Thursday at Golden Gate Fields with a 7-race card. Here is the overnight https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=ONSC-GG-20191121D

A field of 7 line up for Saturday’s 50k Oakland Stakes at Golden Gate Fields. It is a competitive group and it will be interesting to see who is able to come out on top. There is a ton of legit sprint speed in here and I am excited to see some of our top sprinters throw down. Last week’s Golden Nugget Stakes did not go to plan for the blog, so let’s get back on track this week. I am going to go over each runner in the field below.

Here is a list of the past 5 Oakland Stakes winners:

2018- Touched by Autism

2017- Right Hand Man

2016- Star Student

2015- Star Student

2014- Outside Nashville

1- Oiseau de Guerre (Couton/ McCarthy)- This 5yo War Front gelding is looking for his 4th consecutive win (all at 6f over the tapeta). He has always shown some talent in the past, but he has really seemed to blossom once he got onto the tapeta. Breaking from the rail usually isn’t too ideal, but there is other speed in here so he can take back get a comfortable spot. He broke from the rail in his last race and I would imagine he is going to sit a similar trip to that race. In that last start on the far turn he was beginning to make his move off the pace, but had to check pretty bad and fell out of it. He would regain his momentum and rally on to get the win. Will he be able to get up in time in the Oakland Stakes?

2- Baja Sur (Hernandez/ Wright)- An impressive 4 for 5 lifetime. Ran 2nd by a 1/2 length in the Harris Farm Stakes at Fresno. Has a ton of early zip and would expect him to be in the mix early (all of his races he’s been on the lead, but he does seem ratable) Races at Emerald Downs were solid and he looks like an improving 3yo. All 5 of his races have been on dirt, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the tapeta. His last race in the Harris Farm Stakes was really odd– after breaking from the inside he took the lead, then fell into 2nd and was under pressure to keep up with new leader Myfriendemma, then found his stride again on the turn, swung out into the 2 path and stayed on well. Here is a replay of his last win below.

3- Smokey Image (Martinez/ Gaines): Former NorCal 2yo powerhouse makes his way up North for the first time since his juvenile season. Surprisingly has never raced at Golden Gate Fields. More of a precocious type as his last win came in January of his 3yo season. 6yo gelding has been knocking heads with state-bred stakes company down south. Some of his figures from 2018 put him in the ballpark here, but his 3 races this year have not been close. Maybe the return to Northern California will get him back to his winning ways.

4- Quick and Silver (Amador/ Ramos): Hard knocking 8yo has serious speed and is coming off of a close 2nd to Sequentially at the 40k claimer level. Going to face a lot of other speed in here and has not shown much ability in the past to sit-off others. Won a claimer on Sep 22 and ran .41 seconds faster than Oiseau de Guerre did in an Allowance race earlier that day. Amador opts for Quick and Silver over stablemate My Friend Emma. Wheeling back in just 13 days and moves back up to stakes company. A lot of factors in here that he is going to have to overcome.

5- Sigur Ros (Gonzalez/ Mathis): Improving 5yo gelding is an impressive 4 for 5 lifetime over the tapeta. Won at the 16k claiming level 2 back by 6 lengths, and then at the 25k level in his last start by 4 lengths. While he is jumping up a ton in class to the stakes level here, his last race was fast and very impressive– he stopped the clock in a swift 1:08.64. Looks like the speed of the speed in here and his last race was legit. Improving type steps up to a top level here and faces plenty of other speed horses.

6- Indian Zip (Alvarado/ Steiner): Coming off a close 2nd to morning line favorite Oiseau de Guerre in his last start (margin says 1/2 length but it looked more like a neck). 3yo Indian Evening gelding has continued to improve throughout the year and his last puts him in the mix here. Can take back and should have a lot of speed in front of him to set things up. In 7 lifetime starts at 6f, he has 3 wins, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds.

7- My Friend Emma (Monroy/ Ramos): Former stakes winner was last seen running 6th in the California Flag Handicap at Santa Anita on turf. 2 starts back was 3rd in the Harris Farm Stakes. 3 starts back was a close 2nd to Oiseau de Guerre over today’s course and distance. Classy and has been competitive at this level. Form seems to be tailing a off a little bit but his maybe a return to the tapeta will get him back to form. Has speed but not sure if he will be on the lead since he’s on the outside. Could see him making an early move to grab the lead though. Amador hops off to ride stablemate Quick and Silver in here.

Pace Scenario:

There is a ton of speed in here and it is tough to decipher who is going to send and who is going to take back. Sigur Ros and Quick and Silver are the 2 I think are most likely to send. Baja Sur could be forced to go with them from the inside, but has the ability to rate if needed. My Friend Emma has a lot of speed too and I see him rating just off the leaders from the outside. Smokey Image, and Indian Zip are going to get in a comfortable stalking spot. Oiseau de Guerre will be close to them waiting for thing to unfold up front.

Selections: 1-6-2-7

#1 Oiseau de Guerre (2/1)– Is going good right now and should get a great setup. Loves the tapeta.

#6 Indian Zip (8/1)– Should sit a nice trip and will try to get the jump on Oiseau de Guerre. Improving 3yo.

#2 Baja Sur (5/2)– Lightly raced 3yo has some races that make him competitive here. How will he handle the tapeta?

#7 My Friend Emma (6/1)– Should sit a good trip on the outside and I think he will be able to hang on for a piece underneath.

The 2yos take center stage on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields as a competitive field of 6 line up in the $50,000 6f Golden Nugget Stakes. Some formidable Southern California shippers are heading North to take on a solid Northern California contingent. This race has been primarily dominated by horses based in Northern California, but 2 of the past 3 winners have had their prior race at Santa Anita. This is a fun stake and I am going to analyze each runner in the field.

Here is a list of the past 5 Golden Nugget Stakes winners:

2018- Tivan

2017- Runaway Ghost

2016- Righthand Man

2015- Code Warrior

2014- Stalk the Wildcat

1- Call Me Peppy (Gonzalez/ Psarras): Took some money on debut and ran a decent 2nd at Pleasanton. Came out of that to run a distant 7th behind Bulletproof One in the Everett Nevin Stakes. Got outpaced early in those sprint races, so went 2 turns in start #3 to break his maiden in a 1m off-the-turf race at Santa Rosa. Sat a perfect trip that day and powered home well in the stretch behind a speed duel. 3-month layoff here. Looks like a router. Maybe trying to set him up for the Gold Rush Stakes next month?

2- Doc Tommy (Hernandez/ Sadler): Last-out winner is coming off a 3 month layoff. After he broke his maiden by 4-lengths in front running fashion at Golden Gate Fields, he was privately purchased and moved to John Sadler’s barn in Southern California. Been working steadily down there and should be fit for this. Has a lot of natural speed, and you have to figure he will be in the mix early here.

3- Blaisin’ Eamon (Alvarado/ Specht): Son of US Ranger has improved in all three of his lifetime starts based on speed figures. Was really against the bias on debut at Santa Rosa and still ran a good 3rd. Came out of that to break his maiden emphatically by 5 lengths over today’s track and distance. Then was last seen running behind stablemate Misirlou in an Allowance race. He set a very quick pace while dueling on the inside that day. Held on well in the stretch for 3rd and still had a big gallop out. Been forced to send in his last 2 races because he’s had to break from the inside. Works have been steady and fits on numbers.

4- Fore Left (Antongeorgi/ O’Neill): Southern California shipper is the likely favorite and is by far the class of the field. Won the 150k Tremont back in June at Belmont and was 3rd in the G2 Best Pal at Del Mar. Last out he won the 70k Sunny Slope Stakes at Santa Anita in a gate-to-wire score. His sire is Twirling Candy, so the synthetic surface should be no problem for him based on pedigree. Has a lot of speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead– gives Antongeorgi some options.

5- Bettor Trip Nick (Martinez/ Delia): Son of Boat Trip has progressed nicely– he broke his maiden in a 25k mcl on debut and then 2 starts later won a STR50 race by 2 1/2 lengths. Has a lot of speed and it will be interesting to see what he does from post 5. Is close on numbers but this is a big step up in class.

6- No Longer Silent (Frey/ Wong): Coming off a dominant 7-length Allowance score on October 19th. Took command of the race early that day and opened up on the field as the odds-on favorite. Ran 2nd in the Misirlou race on September 29th and finished 3/4 of a length ahead of Blaisin’ Eamon– showed in that race that he doesn’t need the lead. Has a perfect post here and can stay outside the speed. His trainer Jonathan Wong is rolling right now and should have No Longer Silent ready to fire. The son of Minister’s Wildcat is progressing well and has improved in all 4 starts.

Pace scenario:

It will be interesting to see how the pace shapes up, as 5 of the 6 horses in here have speed. While Doc Tommy is coming off a 3-month layoff, it appears that he is the quickest from the gate– his hand is likely forced to send since he’s breaking from post 2. Blaisin’ Eamon could shadow Doc Tommy away from the gate and sit close in 2nd. Fore Left will probably have to rate just off the speed here. With the speed to their inside, I think Bettor Trip Nick and No Longer Silent will sit off of it on the outside. Call Me Poppy doesn’t have the early speed of these and will be out the back.

Selections: 3-6-4-2

#3 Blaisin’ Eamon (6/1)– I thought his last was better than looked and he should take a step forward in this spot. Tactical running style should help. Good value.

#6 No Longer Silent (5/2)– Got the best draw and Frey will be able to place him wherever he wants. Progressive type that’s coming off big win.

#4 Fore Left (6/5)– By far the class of the field. Has had a testing campaign this year. Short price. Pedigree to handle the tapeta.

#2 Doc Tommy (3/1)– Layoff, but Sadler should have him ready and could definitely move him up. Will be up front with a clean break and is going to try to hold everyone off.

There were some really exciting races last week, but unfortunately I do not have enough time to recap them. Thought this would be a good time to bring back the ‘Horses to Watch’ list, as I had gotten some good feedback on them earlier in the year.

‘Horses to Watch’ highlights horses that should be followed for potential wagering options in the future. Virtual stables or stable mail are good tools to help you follow along.

There are 3 horses featured on this week’s list.

Silver Moment (Nov 2: Race 3) You are probably wondering why a horse that ran 5th beaten 11 1/4 lengths made this list… Silver Moment was making his career debut on Saturday and showed some ability. If he stays around this 2yo 12.5k MCL level next time out he should be in with a good shot. His trainer Ed Moger is not the greatest with 1st time starters as he is just 4% with his last 67 FTS– his runners seem to do better with racing under their belts. This $7300 NCAUG purchase by Marino Marini took some money at the windows and was sent off at 9/2. He broke sharp and found himself dueling on a super quick pace for the level (21.33 for 1/4 and 44.94 for the 1/2). Ran into a buzzsaw that day and faded as expected on the turn to finish 5th. Old School Charmer was the one he dueled with and ended up winning by 5 lengths– it seemed like he could have very well won at the 25k level with that performance. Silver Moment has a very precocious pedigree too, so look for this 2yo to make some noise next time out.

Mr. Fireball (Nov 2: Race 7) While Mr. Fireball was a perfect 2 for 2 coming into this, he had not shown he could run at this ALW level– he was sent off at odds of 15-1. This son of Peppered Cat proved me wrong by finishing 3rd. The pace in here was quick (21.85 for the 1/4 and 44.51 for the 1/2) but the race flow seemed to favor those near the lead. The top 2 finishers were 1-2 all the way around, and the 4th place finisher was sitting in 3rd early on. After sitting in 6th, Mr. Fireball made a strong run and showed a lot of energy in the lane. He proved he could hang at this level and earned a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 78 in doing so. Lookout for this improving 3yo next time.

Ajourneytofreedom (Nov 3: Race 8) While he is going to be a short-price next time out, he could be a single in your multi-race bets. In his debut in September he was outpaced early and ran on evenly. His trainer Blaine Wright added blinkers and his works ever since have been sharp. On Sunday he broke alertly but after a few strides out of the gate he veered in very sharply– maybe it had to do with the gap from the temporary rail to the main track? He regrouped and made a move up the rail. Unfortunately he got boxed in behind a wall of horses. Later on the turn he had finally found an opening, but he still had 5 horses to beat. Not to mention, the pace was very slow up front (1/4 in 22.62 and 1/2 in 45.65). He accelerated with a strong turn of foot in the stretch, but just ran out of real estate. Would love to see him go 2-turns next race as he has the pedigree for it (1/2 brother to Anothertwistafate by Hard Spun).

The 50k Joseph T. Grace Stakes (formerly known as the Joseph T. Grace Handicap) was a staple at Santa Rosa for many years during the fair until they stopped running it this year. Luckily Golden Gate Fields picked it up and added it to their stellar Fall Meet Stakes Schedule. A strong field of 9 is signed on for Saturday’s race going 1 1/16m on the grass, and I am going to do a runner-by-runner breakdown below.

1- Builder (Orozco/Tamayo): Coming off a close 2nd by 3/4 of a length to Lymebyrd on the main track in an Allowance race. The start before that he ran a nice 2nd in the Rolling Green Stakes behind Restrainedvengence (run over same course and distance). He sat a perfect trip that day while rating to the outside of the leader on a slow pace, but just couldn’t quicken with the run away winner. More of a grinder/plodding type. Has some tactical speed and should save a lot of ground on the inside. Orozco and Tamayo are 28% together at Golden Gate Fields.

2- Cafe Flavor (Couton/Gallagher): Ran 4th last time out in the Rolling Green Stakes off a year-plus layoff. Had a huge gallop out that day, and should improve here in his 2nd start of the year. Southern California shipper will be running on late. Ultimately think he want’s further than the 8.5f here. Should move forward, but faces a tough group today.

3- Tortosa (Martinez/Bautista): The 2018 Alcatraz Stakes winner made his 1st start since that race in September’s Rolling Green Stakes. Drawn wide that day and was in the 4-path the whole way around– made a strong move on the turn under pressure, and couldn’t sustain his run. Think he got a lot out of that race. Looks like theres more pace in here to set things up. Martinez and Bautista are a very strong 29% when they team up at Golden Gate Fields. Interesting horse underneath.

4- Camino Del Paraiso (Hernandez/Jauregui): If you follow racing at Golden Gate Fields, then this hard-knocking 6yo gelding is one that you are probably familiar with. He was coming off a 6-month layoff in his last start and ran very well in what appeared to be a total prep race (6f Allowance on the main track). He sat back and made a nice steady run in the lane to be 2nd against a stakes level field– good gallop out too. Coming off a bullet 5f work in 1:00.2 on October 24th. He is winless in 7 tries on this turf course, but does have 3 2nds. Regular rider Ricky Gonzalez opts to ride Mugaritz, but getting a top rider in Juan Hernandez is not too bad of a replacement. A fun fact about Camino Del Paraiso is that he was a very narrow runner-up in this race in 2017 when it was run at Santa Rosa. Screws should be tightened and will be trying to run on late.

5- Arch Prince (Pena/Calvario): Took down a 25k Optional Claimer on the main track last out going a mile. Only 2 starts on turf were distant 3rd place efforts. Numbers are well behind the top contenders in here. See him sitting in a stalking position.

6- Respect the Hustle (Frey/McLean): Ran 5th behind Mugaritz in the Bulldog Handicap last time out. Grinding type that usually sits close to the pace. Has shown success over all 3 surfaces and is stakes-placed on the turf. Numbers are behind, and needs to take a step forward.

7- Grecian Fire (Antongeorgi/Desormeaux): The G3 All American Stakes winner makes his Golden Gate Fields return on Saturday. Most likely found the distance too challenging in the 10f G2 John Henry Turf Championship last time out. Was 3rd by 3/4 of a length in the G2 Del Mar Handicap 2-starts back. If you look through his pp’s his best runs have come over the Del Mar Turf course. Is 1/4 lifetime on the Golden Gate lawn. See him sitting a midpack trip. By far the class of the field and is definitely the one to beat.

8- Sixes (Alvarado/Wong): The clear speed of the race. Won a 32k claimer going 1m on this turf course 2 starts back. The figure he earned that day puts him in the ballpark. Ran on evenly after he wasn’t able to get the lead against a speedy Many Roses in a main-track Allowance race last time out. He is a horse that runs well when everything goes his way– his best races have all been on the lead. Alvarado and Wong are 28% together. While he does project to get loose on the lead here, it remains to be seen if he can compete at this stakes level.

9- Mugaritz (Gonzalez/Wong): Local fan-favorite Mugaritz is going for his 5th straight win. Made his first start since March in the Bull Dog Handicap on October 13th at Fresno and won by 6 1/2 lengths going away. While he did get an easy lead on a slow pace in the Bull Dog, I would not hold that against him considering his running style. He has shown the ability to win on the lead, rating, and stalking– his tactical style gives him a big advantage. He only has 1 prior race on the grass, and it was in a Starter Allowance on the turf course in December of 2018. He must be sharp right now if his connections are running him back in 20-days off a big win (could have easily waited for the G3 Berkeley Handicap at the end of the month). His numbers are a bit behind Grecian Fire, but he appears to be an improving horse. Will likely be sitting just off the pace.

Pace scenario: Sixes appears to be the clear-cut speed here and will be trying to take them all the way. While Mugaritz is drawn out wide, he projects to sit a nice outside trip behind his stablemate. Builder could show a bit more speed early from the rail to grab a stalking position along with Respect the Hustle. I see Camino Del Paraiso, Arch Prince, and Grecian Fire sitting midpack here. Cafe Flavor and Tortosa will likely be at the back.

Selections: 9-7-4-3

#9 Mugaritz (2/1)– I see him sitting a beautiful trip here just outside the speed and taking command turning for home. Will get the jump on the closers and I think he will have enough in the lane to hold them off. He is a bit behind on figures, but I see him taking another step forward here to claim his 5th straight win.

#7 Grecian Fire (8/5)– The one to beat on paper. Is taking a big drop from G2 company to a listed stakes. Will be trying to run Mugaritz down.

#4 Camino Del Paraiso (9/2)– Think he is sitting on a good race off that last sprint effort. Just 4 for 30 lifetime. But has run 2nd 9-times. See him being in the mix here.

#3 Tortosa (20/1)– Should have gotten a lot out of his last race and has more pace to run into here. Will save some ground from post 3 and could see him clunking up for a piece underneath at a big price.

The $75,000 Pike Place Dancer Stakes is the first of four 2yo stakes during the Fall meet at Golden Gate Fields. It is for 2yo fillies going 1m on the turf and will be run as the 7th race on Saturday’s 10-race card. While this year’s race did not draw the largest field, it is still a very competitive one.

Here is a list of the last 5 Pike Place Dancer winners.

2018: Lakerball

2017: Multiplayer

2016: Simmy’s Temple

2015: Stays in Vegas

2014: Sharla Rae

1- Shanghai Keely (Orozco/Herbertson): This talented daughter of Shanghai Bobby broke her maiden very impressively by 6 lengths back in July at Pleasanton. She then went into the deep end and ran a solid 4th behind Amalfi Sunrise in the G2 Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar– stayed on fairly well despite a wide trip. Class drop here. Strong work tab, so should be ready off the layoff. Seems like a filly that will appreciate going 2 turns. Her pedigree does not suggest turf at all, so surface is definitely a question mark for her heading into this race. Irving Orozco should have plenty of options from the inside, as this filly seems very versatile.

2- No Cover Charge (Couton/Wong): Done nothing wrong as she is a perfect 2 for 2. She is 1 of 2 entrants in this race for leading trainer Jonathan Wong. Debuted in a 25kMCL race at Santa Rosa and prevailed by a nose. The lightbulb must have gone on after that race, because in her next start she won a 50kSTRALW by 6 lengths (3rd place finisher Just Classy came back to win a Starter Allowance). Filly has a lot of speed and I would imagine she will be on the lead here. Quick works heading into this one. Very precocious pedigree with Kafwain on the top and Unbridled’s Song on the bottom. Do not see much turf in the pedigree. Distance and surface are question marks for her.

3- Convoluted (Hernandez/Miller): Southern California shipper is coming off a distant 2nd in the Phone Chatter Stakes at Los Alamitos. The winner of that race (Quality Response) came back to run 7th in the G1 Frizette Stakes. Her 1 turf try was in the the 100k Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar where she finished 7th by 8 and 3/4 lengths. Convoluted had a bit of trouble on the first turn, got into decent position on the backstretch, and finished up pretty one-paced in the stretch. I would imagine she will sit in a stalking position in Saturday’s race. Her speed figures are a bit behind the others in here, but has some class. The pedigree and connections are there, but is she fast enough?

4- Wise Rachel (Gomez/Howey): Pulled off the upset victory in her debut at Pleasanton in June. Since then, she went to Del Mar and ran 3rd and 4th respectively in 2 Cal Bred Stakes. All 3 of her starts have been sprinting on the dirt, and now stretches out to 2 turns on the turf. She is by English Channel and out of a Smarty Jones mare, so has both turf and distance in the pedigree. In the Generous Portion Stakes she got away slowly from the inside and was outpaced early. She dropped back to last by about 9 lengths and was left with a lot to do. She made a decent bid on the outside to end up 4th against a solid field. Wise Rachel has improved in all 3 starts, and I would have to think the surface and distance will only move her up. Will be running on late.

5- Colombian Gold (Antongeorgi/Lerner): Southern California shipper is still a maiden and is coming off a 5th place effort in a turf sprint at Santa Anita. Lerner is a very capable trainer and has had some success at Golden Gate Fields over the last year or so. Ran a decent debut at Del Mar, was on the lead and faded late– tough to win going 2 turns first out. Stretches back out to a route here. Numbers are slow but seems to be improving. Needs to find more in this spot.

6- The Adrie Factor (Frey/Wong): Thought this filly had talent, but was disappointed with her first 2 starts as she showed nothing in the sprint efforts. Made her 2 turn debut against the boys in an off-the-turf race at Santa Rosa where she set really quick fractions and tired out to finish second in a demanding race. Then, once she got put on the turf course, she was able to put it all together– she scored by 3 1/2 lengths in what was a visually impressive effort. Habobanero, who ran 5th in this race, came back to break her maiden last week. Turf routing is what she wants to do and draws a nice outside post in this spot. Kyle Frey will have a lot options to put her where he wants to.

Pace scenario: I think No Cover Charge will be sent from the 2 hole and go straight for the lead. Colombian Gold will probably sit close in 2nd. Shanghai Keely has some speed, but I think she will stalk the leaders and save ground on the rail. The Adrie Factor has options from her post. I see her stalking the leaders and sitting a similar trip to her last win. Convoluted should grab a stalking position too. Wise Rachel will likely be out the back.

Selections: 4-1-6-5

#4 Wise Rachel (5/1)– Has nice prior races on dirt, but think she wants to route on the turf. Pace in front of her should be solid enough, and will be flying late. Has improved in every start and should take a step forward here. Great value if you can get around the 5/1ml.

#1 Shanghai Keely (7/2)– I think this filly is super talented and is going to appreciate the route of ground. Should be ready to fire off the layoff. Only reservation I have is how she is going to handle the turf.

#6 The Adrie Factor (9/5)– Last start was impressive and is the filly to beat based on the fact that she has the fastest turf race out of anyone in the field. Caught a talented group here and a short price is tough to take.

#5 Colombian Gold (15/1)– Still a maiden but seems like she is improving. Form is muddied up. Can maybe catch a piece underneath.