A competitive group of 3yo’s will contest this year’s El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields. A lot is on the line, as the winner will receive 10 KY Derby points and a birth to the 2021 Preakness Stakes (must be TC nominated). The El Camino Real Derby is scheduled to go as Race 8 (4:37pm) and will be contested at 1 1/8m on the main track. I am going to go over each runner in the field and also post any notable replays/ workouts. Hopefully this analysis can help you with your selections. Let’s get into it!
#1 Positivity (Julien Couton/ Patrick Gallagher): This 3yo son of Paynter has been keeping solid company in Southern California. He looked to have a ton of upside after his first 3 races, but since he has stretched out to route races his form has been lacking. In December he finished 6th in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity behind Spielberg after breaking slow. Last out he had a 4 wide trip in the Cal Cup Derby and ended up 5th by 7 lengths. Seems to have more tactical speed than the pps show. His trainer Patrick Gallagher won the 2013 El Camino Real Derby with Dice Flavor.
#2 Waspirant (Assael Espinoza/ John Shirreffs): After breaking his maiden over the summer at Del Mar, Waspirant jumped straight into the G1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita and finished 4th. He had a 4-5 wide trip that day and made a big move on the turn before understandably fading. He was put on the shelf after that race until the G3 Sham Stakes in January. In the Sham, he finished a distant 4th behind Life is Good and Medina Spirit. Should find this group easier and pedigree suggests he will handle the distance. Goes 2nd off the layoff for trainer John Shirreffs who won the 1999 El Camino Real Derby with Cliquot.
#3 Tesoro (Catalino Martinez/ O.J. Jauregui): This is quite the jump up in class for Tesoro, who is making his 2nd career start in the Derby. He made his debut in a MSW on January 24th and while he crossed the line 1st, he is still technically a maiden because he was DQd to last after drifting out. He sports a strong 5f bullet in 1 min flat on February 5th. Seems like a horse that will like the distance and has the pedigree to handle it. His last speed figure was very slow and needs to improve a lot. Maybe one to follow down the road.
#4 It’s My House (William Antongeorgi III/ Jamey Thomas): Looks to have the best chance of the local horses on paper to win this year’s Derby. Is coming off just a maiden win, but his last race was solid and I liked how he fought on in the lane. The stretchout from 6f to 9f is going to be tough to navigate. Wheels back in 2 weeks. Think we will see him setting the pace, but has proven he can sit off of it. Needs to take a big step forward on Saturday. But hey, you can’t win it if you’re not in it.
#5 Petruchio (Iriving Orozco/ Richard Mandella): Son of Into Mischief has improved his speed figures in all 5 starts. Was last seen running a strong 3rd behind Spielberg in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Has run well on both dirt and turf, so don’t think the tapeta will be much of a problem for him. He is coming off a strong 6f work in 1:13.40, should be fit an ready to go. Trainer Richard Mandella is great at bringing horses along and I think this one could take another step forward on Saturday.
#6 Play Chicken (Evin Roman/ Doug O’Neill): Won his debut going a mile on the turf at Santa Anita in October. He would run his next 3 races on the dirt in state-bred Stakes races. Ran bad in 2 of them, but did manage to win the King Glorious Stakes at Los Alamitos. Should handle the tapeta as he has wins on two surfaces, plus Square Eddie progeny can run on anything. Comes in off a solid 6f work in 1:14.80 at Santa Anita. Play Chicken has some tactical speed and I would expect him to be near the pace early. Trainer Doug O’Neill won the 2016 El Camino Real Derby with Frank Conversation.
#7 Javanica (Frank Alvarado/ Eoin Harty): She is looking to become just the 2nd filly ever to win the Derby (Paved won it in 2018). I don’t think surface or distance will be a problem at all. Her dam won over $658k and was a G2 winner over the All Weather in Dubai and Javanica is also a 1/2 sister to G1-Placed Antoinette, who won the Saratoga Oaks last year. She is coming off strong 2nd place efforts in the Blue Norther Stakes and G3 Jimmy Durante Stakes. I really like how well she was running on at the end of those races. See her settling midpack and making a run late.
#8 Governor’s Party (Cristobal Herrera/ Daniel Franko): Broke the maiden for a 40k tag at Del Mar after being promoted from 2nd because of a DQ. Had a very wide trip in the King Glorious at Los Alamitos and finished 10th. Came back to Golden Gate Fields in his most recent start and scored a 1/2 length win in a Starter Allowance race. The waters get much deeper here and is well behind many of the others on figures.
#9 Rombauer (Kyle Frey/ Michael McCarthy): Is going to attract a lot of the money in here and has the prior credentials to warrant the short price. Has not run since a 5th place effort behind Elusive Quality in the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile. I know he got a big setup that day, but he did run well. 2 starts back in the G1 American Pharoah he was caught wide, made a strong move on the turn, and stayed on well to be a close 2nd. Do not think the distance or surface will be a problem at all for him. Twirling Candy progeny can run on anything and he has been finishing off his 2-turn races really well. Also, his trainer Michael McCarthy knows how to win an El Camino Real Derby as he trained Paved to victory in 2018. Rombauer was scratched out of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes for this spot, so should be fit and ready to go. Comes in off a sharp 5f bullet in 59.40 at Santa Anita.
Selections: 9-7-5-3
#9 Rombauer: Will be the deserving favorite in here. Class of the field and has been pointing to this race. Should love the added distance. Getting leading rider Kyle Frey aboard doesn’t hurt either.
#7 Javanica: Love how she finishes off her races and don’t think 9f will be a problem. Seems handy and think she sits a good trip. Should get the jump on the closers. Aiming to be the 2nd ever filly to win this race.
#5 Petruchio: Has improved in every start and could take a step forward in here. Ran a nice 3rd behind Spielberg last time. In good hands being in the Mandella barn. Running style seems versatile.
#3 Tesoro: Decided to toss him in for 4th here. Think he could clunk up and catch the superfecta. Seems like a horse that should like the distance and can’t say that about some of the others in here.
Best of luck to everyone on Saturday!
NorCal Horse Racing News 