I know there hasn’t been much activity on the blog this year, but I am excited to get it back up and running again with previews for every stakes race this meet. Also, the annual “2yos to Watch” list will be up within the next week or two. Golden Gate Fields has a strong 11-race card on Monday, and it is headlined by the 100k All American Stakes. A field of 7 was drawn, so lets jump into the Memorial Day feature.
The All American Stakes is for 3yos and Up going 1M on the Tapeta. Race 8- 4:22pm post time.
#1 Kiwi’s Dream (Trujillo/ Hernandez): Was an Allowance-caliber sprinter throughout his career up here in Northern California, but that was until his last effort. It was his first try routing and he scored a dominant wire-to-wire win going 8.5f in a 2nd level Allowance Optional Claimer. While it was just a field of 5, he was able to kick on well in the stretch after setting strong opening fractions. Would have to think leading rider Juan Hernandez sends from the rail here and puts him on the lead again. Trujillo strikes at a 10% rate off a 45-90 day layoff. First time in stakes company here for Kiwi’s Dream.
#2 Restrainedvengence (Desormeaux/ Brinkerhoff): The Rolling Green Stakes winner is shipping back up to Northern California for another stakes victory. The 5yo gelding has been very consistent and seems to alway put in a good effort. While he has never run on a synthetic surface, he has shown versatility by winning stakes races on both dirt and turf. He won last out in the 75k Curribot Handicap on March 6th at Sunland Park. Has been running consistently at the stakes level. His last few efforts off a layoff have been decent, but not to his top level. The worktab shows he’s working about every 2 weeks and is coming in off a sharp work in 47.3 at Santa Anita. Should sit a trip that is just off the pace in here. Has enough speed early to lay close and sports by far the fastest late pace figures in the race. Fastest numbers in the field and is a deserving favorite. Tough read with the work pattern and layoff.
#3 Bold Endeavor (Antongeorgi/ Papaprodromou): This son of Bernardini is going to be making his first start over a synthetic surface on Monday. The first 4 starts of his career were on the turf and he did not show much ability at all. He then switched to the dirt and broke his maiden in a 50k MCL race. While Bold Endeavor has come along slowly, he has shown a lot of improvement throughout his 11-race career. His last start was a solid 2nd behind Kershaw in a 2nd level Allowance at Santa Anita– he sat just behind the winner but could never close the gap in the stretch. While his early pace figures aren’t that quick, I would imagine with Antongeorgi aboard he is going put him probably in 2nd or 3rd off projected leader Kiwi’s Dream. The figure from his last race makes him a contender here.
#4 Premium Forest (Tamayo/ Monroy): The son of Forest Command is riding a 3-race win streak into this one. He is also making his first start under trainer Isidro Tamayo, who is a strong 21% with new acquisitions. Tamayo is also 26% off a 45-90 day layoff. Premium Forest has wins on all 3 surfaces and sports wins from 6f to 1 1/2m. This is a big jump in class from a 12.5k starter allowance. Would have to think he is going to take back early and try to come with one big run at the end. His numbers are on the slow side and would have to run a career top to win in this spot. I do think he is a bit more talented than his numbers show, as his late pace figures are higher than the par for this level. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him come in underneath at a good price.
#5 Camino Del Paraiso (Jauregui/ Gonzalez): The ultra-consistent 7yo is coming off strong 2nd place finishes in G3 events on the turf down at Santa Anita (1M Thunder Road on 2/8 and the 1 1/2M San Luis Rey on 3/21). Trainer O.J. Jauregui has done an amazing job with Camino Del Paraiso– he was purchased for just 5k and has earned over $330k in 35 starts with 5 wins and 12 seconds. The son of Suances is pretty versatile and has show the ability to either sit close or to come from off of it– he is a bit one-paced and will be trying to grind away in the lane. A mile does seem to be a bit on the sharp side for him and I am not the biggest fan of horses cutting back from 1 1/2M to 1M. While it seems like his preferred surface is turf, his Allowance win back in January is good enough to get it done in here. Jauregui is just 8% off of a 45-90 day layoff, but I think that stat is a bit misleading, and especially when it comes to Camino Del Paraiso as he has shown the ability to run well off the layoff before.
#6 Engram (Miller/ Amador): 7yo gelding seems to be a huge price in every race he’s entered and has outrun his odds many times in the past. However, he does seem very outmatched here and is probably going to have to run a career top to even hit the board in here. He is coming out of 3rd place effort in a 40k claimer at Santa Anita. Has shown some early speed in the past and is a bit of a wildcard in terms of pace. I am leaning towards them taking back and trying to run on to catch a piece of it.
#7 Builder (Tamayo/ Couton): Last year’s All American Stakes runner-up is back looking for his first stakes win. Coming off a freshening since November and has some fast works on the worktab heading into this one (last work was a 5f bullet in 1:00.3 on 5/17). As stated above with stablemate Premium Forest, Tamayo can get a horse ready off a layoff. Has some tactical speed, but so do a few others in here, and with being drawn the widest (first turn comes up very quickly going 1m) he is probably going to have to take back a bit or risk getting caught wide into the first turn. His #s fit with these in here, but might have to take a step forward to win in this spot.
Pace scenario:
Kiwi’s Dream is the quickest horse in the field, plus combined with breaking from the rail, he is going to send and be on the lead early. I think Kent will play the break with Restrainedvengence and if nobody goes with Kiwi’s Dream, he will stick close to the leader. If somebody else goes, he can take back and sit just behind the lead. Bold Endeavor has some ok early pace figures, but Billy Antongeorgi can get aggressive and try to put some pressure on Kiwi’s Dream. If not, then I would have to think he’s sitting somewhat close to the front. I see Camino Del Paraiso and Builder sitting close to each other in 4th and 5th in here. Engram and Premium Forest look like they’ll be at the back. The pace should be pretty honest up front.
Selections: 2-1-5-4
#2 Restrainedvengence (2/1): Never thrilled with picking the chalk, but decided to lean towards this one in here. His prior runs off the layoff aren’t the best, but he has been kept in training since his last race so should be fit enough. Has enough speed to stay in it early and has strong late pace figures to rundown Kiwi’s Dream late.
#1 Kiwi’s Dream (5/2): See him sitting a great trip on the lead here and has shown the ability to route. This is going to be his stiffest test so far. Could be tough to catch if he gets loose up front.
#5 Camino Del Paraiso (3/1): He fits well and always seems to be there at the end. Not the biggest fan of the cutback from 1 1/2M to 1M. He can win, but think today will set him up well for something down the line.
#4 Premium Forest (10/1): Is going to take back and could see him making a run late to grab a piece underneath.
I know this is not the most creative opinion ever, but hoping the previews and replays for each horse can help you formulate your opinion on the race. Looking forward to the 2 stakes next weekend. Good luck!
NorCal Horse Racing News 