The road to the Kentucky Derby makes it’s annual stop on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields for the El Camino Real Derby. Along with earning 10 Kentucky Derby points, Saturday’s winner will also receive an automatic berth into the Preakness Stakes. Last year we saw Anothertwistafate make some noise on the Triple Crown trail after his impressive victory in the El Camino Real Derby, and it will be interesting to see which one of the 11 entrants can try to do the same this year. The El Camino Real is for 3yos and run at 1 1/8m over the tapeta surface.
I am going to go over my thoughts on all 11 runners in the field below.
#1 Indian Peak (Howey/ Hernandez): This son of Comic Strip has continued to improve and progress in his 6 lifetime starts. He broke his maiden on the turf and then came back to run a better-than-looked 4th in the Gold Rush Stakes (wide trip throughout). Breaking from the rail should be no issue for him as he will likely take back and be able to save ground. After that he came back to win a 1st level Allowance impressively against Final Final and Sacred Rider at the end of December. His last start was in the Cal Cup Derby at Santa Anita where he ran a distant 7th– he never got a good handle of the dirt and was very rank with the strong kickback. He moved into contention on the turn but checked a bit turning for home and could never quicken over the dirt. Coming into this one off two strong 5f bullet works in 59.4 on Feb 2nd and 59 flat on Feb 8th. I remember seeing him in the paddock back in November and he is a huge horse with a big stride to him. The 9f distance shouldn’t be an issue.
#2 Praise Loudly (Franko/ Amador): Broke his maiden at the 20k claiming level on the turf back in November. Is coming off 2 3rd place finishes at the Starter 50 level. Was boxed in with nowhere to go for 1/2 the stretch last race and came on a bit at the end. Seems outmatched here and would be surprised if he could even split the field here.
#3 American Farmer (Sherman/Desormeaux): Was finally able to put it all together in his most recent start, which saw him break his maiden in his 6th lifetime start. The 8.5f race was the furthest he had run to date and was able to win by 1 1/4 lengths. American Farmer closed from 10 lengths back that day and got a strong pace setup in front of him to do so. While his numbers are improving, he is taking on a big class jump from MSW level to Stakes level.
#4 Wine and Whisky (Rondan/ Herrera): This son of Fullbridled is coming off a strong race in the local Allowance prep for Saturday’s race— he finished 2nd by a neck to The Stiff. Stayed on well that day and galloped-out well. Before that he ran in the Indian Peak Allowance race on Dec 27 and finished 5th by 6 1/2 lengths. However I think that finish is not indicative of the horse’s talent as he had to check on the first turn and was very rank inside of horses. Also, he made a move up the rail in the stretch but the hole got shut off and he lost all of his momentum. He has more speed than it might look on paper. Seems like a horse that is still improving and is going to be a price.
#5 Mysterious Stones (Sherman/ Antongeorgi): Coming out of the Allowance prep on January 19th where he ran 3rd by 3/4 of a length. That day he got a dream trip tracking a moderate pace and could not sustain that run in the stretch. Stepped up from a 20k maiden claiming level to 2 straight wins at the Starter 50 level. Hard knocking horse is steadily improving. Pedigree suggests he should get the 9f trip here. Is very tactical and if the pace gets slow, he could take advantage. Needs to take a step up here.
#6 Final Final (McLean/ Krigger): Another one of the runners in here that is coming out of that Allowance prep on Jan 19th. Broke from the far outside in there and had a wide trip throughout to finish 5th by just 2 3/4 lengths. Seems like a horse that likes to harness his energy and make one burst. Numbers are behind here and will likely need some pace to run at if he is going to make any noise in here.
#7 Sacred Rider (Specht/ Alvarado): This Lucky Pulpit gelding has run 9 times without a layoff since June and is coming off of his most impressive race to date. He finished 2nd by a neck and nearly pulled off a 36-1 shocker in the Cal Cup Derby at Santa Anita. This horse has really started to improve since going 2 turns. In December he ran twice, finishing 2nd in the Gold Rush Stakes and 3rd in an Allowance behind Indian Peak and Final Final respectively. His last race puts him right there with the top contenders in here, but was that do to him running on dirt? Him getting better? or a combination of the two? He should be able to get the distance in here. Most of his races he has rated or taken back a bit, but he has shown the ability to run quick pace figures on the lead.
#8 Ajourneytofreedom (Wright/ Gonzalez): While he has the pedigree and connections for the El Camino Real Derby, his form to date has not been up to the level I would have expected it to be. Got drifted very wide into the first turn in the Allowance prep last out and finished 4th by 3/4 of a length to The Stiff. He disappointed that day as the even $ favorite, but did have some excuses. 3f work on Feb 2nd should have sharpened him up and had a stamina building 6f drill in 1:13 on Feb 8th. He broke his maiden on the lead, and I think his best chance is getting involved early. Distance should be no issue for him but needs to improve and take a step forward. People were pretty high on this one early on, so maybe he can put it all together in here.
#9 Azul Coast (Baffert/ Bejarano): Bob Baffert is no stranger to the Triple Crown trail and has another loaded hand this year. 3 of his contenders are undefeated and in the top 10 of most early Derby lists. While Azul Coast might be his 4th or 5th stringer, he is no slouch. Flashed plenty of talent on debut at Los Alamitos, where he won by an easy 4 lengths. His 2nd career start was his last start, and that was a distant 2nd by 7 3/4 lengths behind Authentic in the G3 Sham Stakes. He dropped back to the rail early on and was able to pick up the pieces late. He finished well but I am not exactly sure what he finished ahead of in there. Seems like he will get the distance and having Sky Mesa on the dam side could help him handle the tapeta. His figures are fast and he looks like the one to beat. Should take a ton of money at the windows. Does not have a lot of early speed and will be running on late. Bejarano makes the journey up north to ride in here.
#10 Czechmight (Baltas/ Valdivia): You don’t often see Keeneland winners make their next starts at Golden Gate Fields, but that is the case for Czechmight. Ran a very distant 4th on debut at Ellis Park and then came out of that to wire a maiden field at Keeneland. He was then put into the KEENOV sale and was purchased by his new connections for $190k. Has a strong work tab coming into this one with some sharp 4f drills. Also has a great pedigree as he is by Street Sense and out of an Indian Charlie mare. I see him sitting forwardly placed in here. While Baltas is a solid 18% off 90+ day layoffs, he has a lot of 4f drills on the tab, and I am not sure how fit he will be to get the 9f distance. Also going 9f off a long layoff is a difficult task as well.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/kee/2019/10/13/2/race-2-msw-at-kee-on-10-13-19
#11 The Stiff (McCarthy/ Couton): 3yo son of Danza is heading into the El Camino Real Derby off a score in the local Allowance prep. He broke a bit slow which forced him to sit further off the pace and made a sustained run in the stretch on the outside to win by a neck. This outside post doesn’t do him any favors with his running style (in a field with a lot horses that don’t have speed). However he might be able to save some ground as it is a long run into the first turn. 2 starts back he ran in the Eddie Logan Stakes on Turf at SA and was a distant 7th by 7 lengths. Grinding/plodding type that should seek out the 9f trip. Win over track shows he can handle the tapeta as well.
Pace scenario: This is a very difficult race to project the pace because there is not a ton of true speed in here, but I will try to take a crack at it nonetheless. I think Alvarado is going to send with Sacred Rider and Ajourneytofreedom is going to be tracking him from the outside. Czechmight is a bit of a wildcard in here but I project him to be sitting close on the outside in 3rd. Wine and Whisky and Mysterious Stones are going to be forwardly place on the inside in 4th and 5th just behind the leaders. Then I see a gap back to American Farmer and The Stiff who will try to tuck in as much as he can from the outside post. Praise Loudly, Azul Coast, Indian Peak, and Final Final will be close to them at the back. I don’t see it being a super hot pace in here but I think the fractions will be moderate enough up front.
Selections: 1-9-7-4
#1 Indian Peak: He looks like an improving colt and if you throw out his last effort on dirt he looks like one that could contend in here. His win on December 29th was strong. Juan Hernandez knows him well and should be able to work out a trip in here. Big horse with a long stride. Coming off 2 strong bullet works.
#9 Azul Coast: Baffert spots his horses really well and this one has shown potential in both career starts. Running on a new surface for the first time and will be closing late. The one to beat in here and will take a ton of $.
#7 Sacred Rider: Has speed and is coming off his best career race. Has a big shot in here especially if he gets a good trip up front. Does his last effort show where his talent is at right now? Or was it the dirt that moved him up?
#4 Wine and Whisky: Is coming off a good 2nd in the local prep for this race and should sit a very comfy ground saving trip in here. Think he will stay on and could catch a piece of it at a big price.
NorCal Horse Racing News 