Closing weekend of the Fall Meet is here and we end things with 2 12-race cards, including a stakes race each day. On Saturday the Bear Fan Stakes is the feature. A field of 7 cal-bred fillies are set to go 6f for a purse of 75k.
Past 3 Bear Fan Stakes winners:
2018: The Spiral Jetter
2017: Fast and Foxy
2016: Fast and Foxy
1- Apache Princess (Antongeorgi/ Desormeaux): This G3 winner is by far the class of the field and is coming off a 2nd place effort in the G3 Senator Ken Maddy Stakes at Santa Anita on the Breeders Cup undercard. That day she found traffic trouble in the stretch and had to check, then she moved to the outside and ran on very strongly. While she does have some very good runs over a route of ground, it seems like 1-turn is her best game. Has never run over an all weather track, but would have to think she will be able to handle it since she sports wins over dirt and turf. Will be running on late. The one to beat.
2- Princess Vivian (Martinez/ Ledezma): 3yo filly seems like she is improving and is making her 6th career start. Coming off a 3rd place effort in a 1st level Allowance. Catalino Martinez hops aboard for the first time. Speed figures kind of fit but needs to take a step forward. Will be settling off the pace in here.
3- Trina (Monroy/ Evans): Debuted back in August and is making her stakes debut in start #4. Coming off a narrow head defeat to Coco Bee in her last start (Coco Bee came back to win an Allowance by 2 lengths on Thursday). Filly has improved in all 3 starts, but is really going to need to take a step up here. Could sit a good trip as she has speed but has shown the ability to rate if needed.
4- The Spiral Jetter (Hernandez/ Mathis): The defending champ is coming into the Bear Fan similarly to last year. She is cutting back from a route to a sprint and coming off a 45+ day layoff. She has had a steady worktab since Nov 14, and her last work was a 3f bullet in 35.3. Juan Hernandez has been red hot lately. She fits in here. See her taking back and making one run.
5- Vronilla Parfait (Alvarado/ Ledezma): 6yo mare is coming off a career-best effort in an open Allowance last time out on Nov 16. She sat off a quick pace and stayed on well to score by 1 1/4 lengths. Seems to be on the improve and will be getting the jump on the closers in here. Any step forward puts her in the mix.
6- Ima Happy Cat (Couton/ Markle): Ran 3rd behind Vronilla Parfait in the last start, but her having to bobble at the start caused her to be much further back than her preferred trip (on/near the lead). That last effort is tough to interpret for me. Did her having to take back help her because there was a fast pace up front? Or did she not run her best because she like to be on the lead early? Making 3rd start off the layoff and has 2 sharp 4f bullet works heading into this one. Should be fully cranked. Has 3 wins, a second, and a third in 7 starts over the tapeta. Looks like the speed of the speed, but can sit if needed.
7- Lippy (Gutierrez/ O’Neill): Strong SoCal connections head North for the Bear Fan. Was last seen running on the turf course in the Campanile back in April– she finished 8th at a short price, and I think it is safe to assume that something went wrong that day. Sports a few bullet works down at San Luis Rey, but there are some very notable gaps in the work tab. Her 2yo form was strong and has a nice run routing on the turf from back in February. Has tactical speed. A wildcard in here forsure.
Pace scenario:
Trina’s hand might be forced to go from post 3 and I expect her to show speed early. Ima Happy Cat is the speed of the speed in the race, but can sit just off Trina if needed. Lippy has shown some speed in the past, but I am not really sure how sharp she will be off the layoff. I think Gutierrez will have her in an outside rating spot. Vronilla Parfait should sit a stalking trip. Apache Princess and Princess Vivian will be just behind her. And lastly The Spiral Jetter will be in/near the back.
Selections: 6-1-4-5
#6 Ima Happy Cat (9/2): Price will be good enough and she should sit a perfect trip. 3rd off the layoff and looks ready to roll.
#1 Apache Princess (6/5): She is the class of the field and the one to beat. Strong turn of foot and will be running on late.
#4 The Spiral Jetter (6/1): Similar pattern to what she did last year before her win in this race. Looks ready to go and Juan Hernandez has been red hot. Going to have to outfinish Apache Princess.
#5 Vronilla Parfait (7/2): Has solid form and has been running against some good company up here. Coming off strong win and will get a jump on the closers.
NorCal Horse Racing News 