The 50k Joseph T. Grace Stakes (formerly known as the Joseph T. Grace Handicap) was a staple at Santa Rosa for many years during the fair until they stopped running it this year. Luckily Golden Gate Fields picked it up and added it to their stellar Fall Meet Stakes Schedule. A strong field of 9 is signed on for Saturday’s race going 1 1/16m on the grass, and I am going to do a runner-by-runner breakdown below.
1- Builder (Orozco/Tamayo): Coming off a close 2nd by 3/4 of a length to Lymebyrd on the main track in an Allowance race. The start before that he ran a nice 2nd in the Rolling Green Stakes behind Restrainedvengence (run over same course and distance). He sat a perfect trip that day while rating to the outside of the leader on a slow pace, but just couldn’t quicken with the run away winner. More of a grinder/plodding type. Has some tactical speed and should save a lot of ground on the inside. Orozco and Tamayo are 28% together at Golden Gate Fields.
2- Cafe Flavor (Couton/Gallagher): Ran 4th last time out in the Rolling Green Stakes off a year-plus layoff. Had a huge gallop out that day, and should improve here in his 2nd start of the year. Southern California shipper will be running on late. Ultimately think he want’s further than the 8.5f here. Should move forward, but faces a tough group today.
3- Tortosa (Martinez/Bautista): The 2018 Alcatraz Stakes winner made his 1st start since that race in September’s Rolling Green Stakes. Drawn wide that day and was in the 4-path the whole way around– made a strong move on the turn under pressure, and couldn’t sustain his run. Think he got a lot out of that race. Looks like theres more pace in here to set things up. Martinez and Bautista are a very strong 29% when they team up at Golden Gate Fields. Interesting horse underneath.
4- Camino Del Paraiso (Hernandez/Jauregui): If you follow racing at Golden Gate Fields, then this hard-knocking 6yo gelding is one that you are probably familiar with. He was coming off a 6-month layoff in his last start and ran very well in what appeared to be a total prep race (6f Allowance on the main track). He sat back and made a nice steady run in the lane to be 2nd against a stakes level field– good gallop out too. Coming off a bullet 5f work in 1:00.2 on October 24th. He is winless in 7 tries on this turf course, but does have 3 2nds. Regular rider Ricky Gonzalez opts to ride Mugaritz, but getting a top rider in Juan Hernandez is not too bad of a replacement. A fun fact about Camino Del Paraiso is that he was a very narrow runner-up in this race in 2017 when it was run at Santa Rosa. Screws should be tightened and will be trying to run on late.
5- Arch Prince (Pena/Calvario): Took down a 25k Optional Claimer on the main track last out going a mile. Only 2 starts on turf were distant 3rd place efforts. Numbers are well behind the top contenders in here. See him sitting in a stalking position.
6- Respect the Hustle (Frey/McLean): Ran 5th behind Mugaritz in the Bulldog Handicap last time out. Grinding type that usually sits close to the pace. Has shown success over all 3 surfaces and is stakes-placed on the turf. Numbers are behind, and needs to take a step forward.
7- Grecian Fire (Antongeorgi/Desormeaux): The G3 All American Stakes winner makes his Golden Gate Fields return on Saturday. Most likely found the distance too challenging in the 10f G2 John Henry Turf Championship last time out. Was 3rd by 3/4 of a length in the G2 Del Mar Handicap 2-starts back. If you look through his pp’s his best runs have come over the Del Mar Turf course. Is 1/4 lifetime on the Golden Gate lawn. See him sitting a midpack trip. By far the class of the field and is definitely the one to beat.
8- Sixes (Alvarado/Wong): The clear speed of the race. Won a 32k claimer going 1m on this turf course 2 starts back. The figure he earned that day puts him in the ballpark. Ran on evenly after he wasn’t able to get the lead against a speedy Many Roses in a main-track Allowance race last time out. He is a horse that runs well when everything goes his way– his best races have all been on the lead. Alvarado and Wong are 28% together. While he does project to get loose on the lead here, it remains to be seen if he can compete at this stakes level.
9- Mugaritz (Gonzalez/Wong): Local fan-favorite Mugaritz is going for his 5th straight win. Made his first start since March in the Bull Dog Handicap on October 13th at Fresno and won by 6 1/2 lengths going away. While he did get an easy lead on a slow pace in the Bull Dog, I would not hold that against him considering his running style. He has shown the ability to win on the lead, rating, and stalking– his tactical style gives him a big advantage. He only has 1 prior race on the grass, and it was in a Starter Allowance on the turf course in December of 2018. He must be sharp right now if his connections are running him back in 20-days off a big win (could have easily waited for the G3 Berkeley Handicap at the end of the month). His numbers are a bit behind Grecian Fire, but he appears to be an improving horse. Will likely be sitting just off the pace.
Pace scenario: Sixes appears to be the clear-cut speed here and will be trying to take them all the way. While Mugaritz is drawn out wide, he projects to sit a nice outside trip behind his stablemate. Builder could show a bit more speed early from the rail to grab a stalking position along with Respect the Hustle. I see Camino Del Paraiso, Arch Prince, and Grecian Fire sitting midpack here. Cafe Flavor and Tortosa will likely be at the back.
Selections: 9-7-4-3
#9 Mugaritz (2/1)– I see him sitting a beautiful trip here just outside the speed and taking command turning for home. Will get the jump on the closers and I think he will have enough in the lane to hold them off. He is a bit behind on figures, but I see him taking another step forward here to claim his 5th straight win.
#7 Grecian Fire (8/5)– The one to beat on paper. Is taking a big drop from G2 company to a listed stakes. Will be trying to run Mugaritz down.
#4 Camino Del Paraiso (9/2)– Think he is sitting on a good race off that last sprint effort. Just 4 for 30 lifetime. But has run 2nd 9-times. See him being in the mix here.
#3 Tortosa (20/1)– Should have gotten a lot out of his last race and has more pace to run into here. Will save some ground from post 3 and could see him clunking up for a piece underneath at a big price.
NorCal Horse Racing News 